The Atlanta Fed's SouthPoint offers commentary and observations on various aspects of the region's economy.
The blog's authors include staff from the Atlanta Fed’s Regional Economic Information Network and Public Affairs Department.
Postings are weekly.
Are the Clouds Lifting in the Sunshine State?
Each month, the Atlanta Fed produces a Data Digest for each state in our district. Beyond providing an economic snapshot for each state, the Data Digest also breaks down the information by metro area or industry, where appropriate.
Florida’s latest Data Digest indicates that the state’s overall economic activity is improving. For example, a broad measure of economic performance—the Coincident Economic Activity Index, which the Philadelphia Fed compiles for all 50 states—has been steadily improving since 2010 and improved at a slightly faster clip than the nation since August 2013 (see the chart).
Looking at Florida’s labor markets, you can see that the state’s unemployment rate has improved from a peak of 11.4 percent in early 2010 to under 7 percent in November 2013 (see the chart). In addition, the state has regained more than half of the jobs that were lost during the downturn. The leisure and hospitality, education and health care, and retail trade sectors have more jobs today than prior to the downturn. Regarding the first sector, my Atlanta Fed colleague Gloria Guzman wrote in a previous SouthPoint post that the leisure and hospitality sector has been a significant contributor to Florida’s economic recovery. Meanwhile, employment in the manufacturing and construction sectors still has a long way to go before full recovering can be declared.
The University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research reported that although consumer confidence is off its recession lows, improvement has stalled. Despite that slowing, Florida sales tax revenue continues to rebound (see the chart). The Florida Department of Revenue notes that sales tax has been positively affected by the healthy activity in the leisure and hospitality sector.
The Atlanta Fed’s monthly real estate poll of homebuilders and brokers has noted improving home prices, and other data confirm this trend in Florida. The state has experienced an improvement in home prices of 8.4 percent from November 2012 to November 2013, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency. Furthermore, the S&P Case-Shiller home price index shows similar trends in Miami and Tampa (see the chart).
Our monthly real estate poll also showed a rebound in residential construction (see the chart). Data from the U.S. Census Bureau confirm this trend, although it is important to note that activity is well below the prerecession peak. Although we do not expect a return to 2005 levels of activity, the steady rebound in new home construction is another signal of the state’s overall economic recovery.
Florida’s economy is clearly moving in the right direction. The Atlanta Fed’s surveys as well as regular input from business leaders and economic data all point to a steady rebound.
By Marycela Diaz-Unzalu, an economic and financial education specialist in the Atlanta Fed’s Miami Branch
TrackBack URL for this entry:
Listed below are links to blogs that reference Are the Clouds Lifting in the Sunshine State?:
- A Timely Talk with Energy Professionals
- A Closer Look at Earnings in the Southeast
- Has Southeast Manufacturing Found Some Optimism?
- WHAT WAS I THINKING?!?!
- Southeast Commercial Construction Continues Gathering Steam
- Employment Momentum Grows in Florida and the Retail Sector
- Conditions Soften for Southeastern Housing
- Music City Is Playing Your Song
- Signs Point Up for Regional Manufacturing
- South Florida Maintains Momentum
- December 2014
- November 2014
- October 2014
- September 2014
- August 2014
- July 2014
- June 2014
- May 2014
- April 2014
- March 2014
- Banks and banking
- Beige Book
- Business Cycles
- Commodity Prices
- Consumer Savings
- Data Releases
- Disaster recovery
- Economic conditions
- Economic Growth and Development
- Economic Indicators
- Fiscal Policy
- Gulf Coast
- Health Care
- Holiday Sales
- Labor Markets
- Local Economic Analysis and Research Network (LEARN)
- Monetary Policy
- Natural Disasters
- New Orleans
- Oil Spill
- Real Estate
- Sales Tax