Housing Continues to Rebound
The Atlanta Fed’s December 2013 Southeast housing market poll results show ongoing progress in the housing recovery. The majority of builders and brokers reported that sales on a year-over-year basis continued to be flat to slightly up (see the chart).
After several months of reports of declining buyer traffic, most brokers and more builders indicated that buyer traffic was up on a year-over-year basis (see the chart).
The majority of brokers continued to report that home inventory levels had fallen from year-earlier levels, and most builders reported that inventory levels remain unchanged (see the chart).
The majority of brokers and builders indicated that home prices increased slightly in December (see the chart).
Builders continued to indicate upward pressure on labor costs. More than 90 percent of builders reported that labor costs had increased in December 2013, compared with less than 80 percent in December 2012 and roughly 40 percent in December 2011 (see the chart).
While half of all contacts reported that the amount of available credit is equal to demand, just shy of half reported that the amount of available credit falls short of demand (see the charts).
Most contacts continued to report that the available construction and development finance falls short of existing demand (see the chart). Even so, several contacts commented that when the components of construction and development finance are broken out, credit for the vertical construction of structures is fairly available, but obtaining credit for lot development remains challenging.
During the next three months, builders expect sales growth to be flat to slightly up, and brokers’ expectations are mixed (see the charts). Expectations remain fairly positive overall, however; fewer contacts are as optimistic about sales growth as they were one year ago.
More than half of all builders expect activity to increase over the next three months, but the outlook is more subdued than a year earlier (see the chart). Fewer builders expect construction activity to increase over the next three months compared to one year ago.
Note: December poll results are based on responses from 44 residential brokers and 24 homebuilders and were collected January 6–15, 2014. The housing poll's diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. Positive values in the index indicate increased activity, and negative values indicate decreased activity.
If you are a real estate broker or homebuilder and would like to participate in this poll, please let us know by sending a note to RealEstateCenter@atl.frb.org.
By Jessica Dill, senior economic research analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department
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