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06/26/2014

Florida, On Holiday

In May, the Sixth District states added just 15,000 net new payrolls. This increase follows three months where the states hit the mark of 40,000 new payrolls per month. However, last month, the District's labor market held two dubious distinctions: first, Florida shed more payrolls than any other state in the nation, and second, Georgia—despite adding 12,900 payrolls in May—had the largest statistically significant increase in its unemployment rate than any other state in the nation (up 0.3 percentage points; see the chart).

Contributions to Change in Net Payrolls, by Sixth District State

As you can see in the chart above, Florida added about 100,000 payrolls for the first four months of 2014 before hitting a snag in May. So what happened last month? Three of the state's sectors that appeared to have turned the corner following the downturn actually were hit hard in May: employment in the construction and accommodation and food services sectors both declined last month, losing 6,100 and 7,700 payrolls, respectively. Hiring in professional and business services—a sector recovering faster than most in the postrecession period—shed 9,500 payrolls. Florida's professional and business services sector added 25,500 payrolls during the first four months of 2014.

As always, a reasonable word of caution when looking at these data: one month does not a trend make. Still, you can't help but scratch your head on this one, especially with accommodation and food services, as the weather warms up after a harsh winter and people begin planning their Florida beach getaways. You can see how employment in the previously mentioned sectors is faring relative to their most recent peaks and troughs in the chart below.

Florida Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Selected Industries

On the other hand, Florida's labor market is still showing some signs of life: the trade and transportation sector added 5,300 payrolls, and retailers added 2,100 payroll jobs.

Other District states fared better in May. As previously mentioned, Georgia added 12,900 payrolls (with 5,400 of those being in professional, scientific, and technical services), and Louisiana added 8,500 payroll jobs over the month. Tennessee added 6,700 payrolls, and Mississippi—where monthly payroll growth has averaged 1,300 during the past 12 months—added 4,100 payrolls.

State unemployment rates
Despite five out of six District states adding payrolls in May, five out of six District states also saw increases in their unemployment rates. The District's aggregate unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to reach 6.5 percent, while Mississippi's ticked up to reach 7.7 percent (the highest rate in the District). Georgia saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, reaching 7.2 percent. Louisiana's noticeably lower rate of employment increased to 4.9 percent (see the chart).

Unemployment Rates for Sixth District States, and Sixth District Aggregate

To find out how many jobs it would take to lower unemployment rates in all 50 states, check out the Atlanta Fed's Jobs Calculator.

The next national employment release will be out July 3, and the next regional employment release comes out July 18.

By Mark Carter, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department

June 26, 2014 in Employment, Florida, Labor Markets, Southeast, Unemployment | Permalink

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