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Southeast Manufacturing Rides a Wave in May

The most recent Southeast Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) indicated that manufacturing activity continued to expand in May. The latest report, released on June 5, put the overall index at 59.8 points. Although the May index was 3.4 points below April’s 63.2 level, it was still well above the 50-point threshold, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector.

The Southeast PMI is produced by the Econometric Center at Kennesaw State University. A reading on the index above 50 represents an expansion in the manufacturing sector, and a reading below 50 indicates a contraction. The survey provides an analysis of manufacturing conditions for the region in Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Representatives from various manufacturing companies are surveyed regarding trends and activities in new orders, production, employment, supplier delivery time, and finished inventories.

All components of the Southeast PMI decreased during May, but for the most part, only slightly (see the chart):

  • The new orders subindex fell 2.8 points from April but remained a solid 69.6. A high new orders subindex is a good sign that future production activity will be robust.
  • The production subindex fell 0.7 points compared with April, but like new orders, it remained strong with a reading of 67.4. The high production subindex suggests that factories are currently busy, Coupled with the elevated new orders subindex, manufacturing firms stand a good chance of remaining busy in the months to come.
  • The employment subindex declined 0.8 points from April to 63 but still indicates that manufacturing payrolls are increasing.
  • The supplier delivery subindex also suggested strengthening in the sector. While it fell 5.2 points to 57.6, it remains solidly in expansionary territory—an indication that demand for inputs among manufacturers is healthy.

A notable aspect in the PMI report was the responses to the survey question concerning future production. When asked about their production expectations over the next three to six months, only 41 percent of purchasing managers expect production to be higher. That rate is somewhat out of line with the strong new orders numbers we’ve seen, but maybe some underlying elements are dampening purchasing managers’ optimism.

The Southeast PMI has averaged a reading of 61.5 during the last three months. That level represents the strongest three-month average since early 2012. Let’s hope that manufacturing activity can continue to ride the wave and not wipe out this summer.

By Troy Balthrop, a senior Regional Economic Information Network analyst in the Atlanta Fed’s Nashville Branch

June 12, 2014 in Employment , Inventories , Manufacturing , Productivity , Southeast | Permalink


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