Southeast Housing Update: Exploring the Recent Slowdown
Following several months of somewhat disappointing reports on home sales and housing starts, we decided that it was time to ask the residential brokers and builders who participate in our monthly housing market poll to revisit the factors that may be contributing to slower-than-hoped-for growth.
When housing’s momentum began slowing in mid-2013, many contacts pointed to rising mortgage rates as the reason. Then in early 2014, many attributed the continued sluggishness to inclement weather. Although it seemed that weather did, in fact, play a role, our business contacts reported that less affordable buying conditions (for example, higher rates and prices) and limited inventory were greater culprits.
So what is the reason now? Our latest poll results suggest that contacts continue to believe that less affordable buying conditions and limited inventory—plus tight credit conditions—are the main factors behind the slowing activity (see the table).
Although the results of this special question help us as we think through what might be contributing to the weak growth, it is important to acknowledge that the incoming data (and upwardly revised data from the past few months) suggest that housing activity might not actually be slowing to the degree we previously thought. And in fact, a quick look at the latest poll results (without considering the special question) might also lead one to conclude that regional housing market conditions remain fairly positive. To explore the latest results in more detail, please view our Construction and Real Estate Survey results.
Note: The latest poll results reflect activity in July 2014 and are based on responses from 44 residential brokers and 16 homebuilders and were collected August 4–13. If you would like to participate in this poll, please consider signing up.
By Jessica Dill, senior economic research analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department
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