05/10/2013
Expansion in Regional Manufacturing Continues
Manufacturing contacts in the Southeast region reported continued expansion for the fourth consecutive month, as reflected in the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
The Southeast PMI, produced by the Econometric Center at Kennesaw State University, provides an analysis of the most current market conditions for the manufacturing sector in Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The index is based on a survey of representatives from companies in those states regarding trends and activity of new orders, production, employment, supplier delivery time, and finished goods. A reading on this index above 50 represents an expansion in the manufacturing sector, and a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
This positive trend for manufacturing activity came as a pleasant surprise as the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index reported two consecutive drops in the national PMI, suggesting manufacturing growth to have slowed nationally. While Southeast PMI is not a subset of the national index, both measure a mix of similar components by surveying purchasing managers.
The Southeast PMI experienced less than a point increase in April compared with March. Although this increase over the prior period is minimal, the overall index reflected the highest level since May 2012 at 55.5, which is 5.5 points above the of 50-point benchmark. Increases in indices of new orders, production, and employment drove this growth, and each of these components was substantially above its respective measure in the national PMI.
Production experienced the most significant jump of the survey components, with an increase of 5.7 points from March to April, ending at 61.2. Employment jumped 4.1 points during the same period to 57.8. While new orders reflected a much smaller increase of 0.4 points, this minimal increase brings the submeasure to 57.8, well above the expansion benchmark (see the chart).
Of survey participants, 43 percent expect production to be higher in the next three to six months, versus 33 percent for the prior survey period. Although this is not the highest level of optimism reported this year by survey participants, those following the industry welcome these positive sentiments while watching to see if the region will continue to outperform national manufacturing activity.
By Amy Pitts, a senior Regional Economic Information Network analyst in the Atlanta Fed’s Nashville Branch
May 10, 2013 in Alabama, Employment, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Manufacturing, Mississippi, Southeast, Tennessee | Permalink
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04/23/2013
Regional Employment Grew in March, Led by Florida and Georgia
On April 19, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March regional and state employment and unemployment report. Data in the report show that Sixth District states added a seasonally adjusted 45,500 payrolls in March, and the aggregated regional unemployment rate dropped 0.1 percentage point, to 7.7 percent, with results generally positive across southeastern states (see the chart). The United States as a whole added 88,000 payrolls in March 2013, which means the Sixth District states accounted for a large portion of the national gain.
Notably, February payroll gains for the region were revised down by 11,800, to a new level of 29,800. Nonetheless, the three-month average employment gain for the region remained a healthy 34,500.
Sixth District highlights
- All states within the Sixth District with the exception of Tennessee added payrolls in March 2013 (see the table). The largest gains were in Florida (32,700, highest in the nation) and Georgia (13,600, third-highest in the nation).
- Leisure and hospitality (12,500) added the most jobs in Florida, followed by trade, transportation, and utilities (6,600) and construction (5,500).
- Payroll increases in Georgia came from professional and business services (6,700), trade, transportation, and utilities (4,200) and construction (3,100).
- Most of the sectors in Tennessee cut jobs over the month, with the leaders being professional and business services (down 3,300) and trade, transportation and utilities (down 2,400).
- Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi experienced only small increases in payrolls.
- The unemployment rate decreased in Florida (down 0.3 percentage point), Georgia (down 0.2 percentage point), and Mississippi (down 0.2 percentage point). It was unchanged in Alabama and increased in Louisiana (up 0.2 percentage point) and Tennessee (up 0.1 percentage point; see the chart).
By Neil Desai, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed’s research department
April 23, 2013 in Alabama, Employment, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Southeast, Tennessee, Unemployment | Permalink
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04/03/2013
Regional Employment Increases
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released state employment and unemployment data on March 29 for the month of February. The news was rather good.
The report showed that Sixth District states added a net 41,600 payrolls in February, which is a stronger showing that January’s upwardly revised increase of 28,200. All states in the region added payrolls in February, with Tennessee (up 11,400) and Louisiana (up 9,100) leading the way.
Meanwhile, the aggregated unemployment rate for the region remained unchanged at 7.8 percent, with individual states’ results a mixed bag (see table below). The unemployment rate decreased in Florida (down 0.2 percentage point) and Georgia (down 0.1 percentage point), the two states that together make up almost 60 percent of the Sixth District’s labor market. The unemployment rate increased in the other states in the region.
By Neil Desai, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed’s research department
April 3, 2013 in Employment, Florida, Georgia, Southeast, Tennessee, Unemployment | Permalink
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03/19/2013
Conditions Improving in Tampa, but Not Quite Fully Recovered
The theme that emerged from our recent meeting with residential and commercial real estate (CRE) contacts in the Tampa area was that the worst is behind us, and the outlook is positive.
As part of our efforts to monitor the scope and depth of the real estate recovery, the Atlanta Fed’s Center for Real Estate Analytics and representatives from our Regional Economic Information Network (REIN) hosted a real estate forum in Tampa on March 5.
Optimism from the residential side is likely tied to the fact that home prices in the Tampa area were up both month over month and year over year (see the chart).
Perhaps more importantly, the rise in home prices was relatively widespread. Nearly 80 percent of all zip codes in the Tampa metropolitan statistical area experienced some level of positive house price appreciation on a year-over-year basis. While 31 percent of zip codes in Tampa experienced modest house price appreciation of from 0 percent to 5 percent (see lightest-green portion of the 2012 bar in the chart below), close to half of zip codes in Tampa experienced house price appreciation of from 10 percent to more than 20 percent (see the darker-green variations in the 2012 bar). This represented quite a change from one year earlier, when more than 80 percent of zip codes in Tampa experienced some degree of house price decline (as evidenced by the portions of the 2011 bar shaded in red).
Half of our contacts described home inventory levels (both new and existing homes taken together) as undersupplied (see the chart). Brokers reported that there are not enough MLS listings of existing homes to satisfy home-buyer demand. This situation is compounded by the fact that builders are tightly controlling the pace at which they release new homes onto the market to prevent burning through their new-home inventory too fast. Most contacts also indicated that finished lot inventory levels were undersupplied in the Tampa market.
Most contacts indicated that the amount of available credit fell short of demand, though it was encouraging to see that a growing share of contacts perceived the amount of available credit to satisfy demand (see the chart). While it is possible that this observation stems from either the particular mix of stakeholders present or from specific dynamics in the Tampa market, it might also signal that credit is starting to become more available, which is an improvement from previous polls we’ve conducted (here and here).
The outlook for residential real estate conditions in Tampa was rather positive. All of the contacts polled indicated that they expect construction activity to rise in their market over the next six months (see the chart). The vast majority of contacts also expected to see continued growth in home sales and in home prices.
Shifting to CRE, contacts reported that construction activity during the first quarter was up slightly from a year earlier. However, most of the activity has been driven by tenant improvements. They noted that firms are more interested in the efficient use of space along with floor plans that encourage collaboration. Most new construction is build-to-suit and growing more popular. The sentiment is that now is the right time to buy space rather than rent. Developers also noted that labor and material prices were on the rise.
Much of the commercial construction activity remains centered in the apartment market and is urban and concentrated in nature. Despite large numbers of units coming to market, net absorption has remained positive.
Office and industrial properties have experienced positive net absorption over the last six months. Contacts indicated that optimism, pent-up demand, and population growth have fueled that trend, while the retail sector remains soft.
The outlook for Tampa’s CRE market is mostly positive. The majority of our contacts expect the market will improve slightly this year. Net absorption should be slightly positive during 2013 while vacancy rates are expected to edge down. Most anticipate asking rents will stabilize or rise slightly.
Contacts’ positive outlook was fueled by continued population growth and expected improvements in employment. They noted that corporate relocation activity was expected to return this year. They felt that the Tampa market is once again cost-competitive, allowing it to once again attract new businesses.
The message from Tampa was clear: real estate markets are improving. After several years of decline, it’s a welcome change.
By Jessica Dill and
Whitney Mancuso, senior economic research analysts in the Atlanta Fed’s research department
March 19, 2013 in Florida, Housing | Permalink
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12/05/2012
Real Estate Recovery along the Panhandle
In early November, staff from the Atlanta Fed's Center for Real Estate Analytics traveled to the Florida Panhandle to meet with local real estate business contacts along the Gulf Coast. Joined by our Regional Economic Information Network (REIN) colleagues from the Jacksonville and New Orleans branches of the Atlanta Fed, we hosted two roundtable discussions: one with residential contacts and one with commercial real estate (CRE) contacts.
The state of residential real estate
When asked to characterize the health of the regional economy, our residential real estate roundtable attendees described the Gulf Coast economy as stable to improving. The majority of our business contacts in the region noted that home prices had hit bottom (see the chart), and they expected home price appreciation to continue to be flat to slightly up through spring 2013. Balanced home inventory levels, fewer distressed properties, more buyer traffic and increasing home sales all contribute to this dynamic, they said.
Move-up buyers account for a good portion of the existing home sales activity in this region, with some contacts reporting that they make up just shy of half of all home buyer traffic (see the chart). Business contacts noted that cash buyers have not discovered the Panhandle yet. They also reported that investors and second home buyers are often considered one and the same in this region and typically hail from Texas, the Midwest, Baltimore, and surrounding Southeast states that are within driving distance.
Interestingly, this homebuyer profile aligns nicely with the poll data that we collected for the Southeast and blogged about back in October.
Reports on housing inventories varied among our panel. Lenders indicated an oversupply and builders noted a shortage, while reports from brokers were mixed.
Larger home builders noted that they are now making money again, and they have moved from a defensive stance to an offensive one. Smaller builders continued to note limited access to finance (see the chart) and explained that those who survived the downturn now either seek capital from individuals with excess cash to lend or have the buyer finance the construction. Builders echoed reports we have heard around the region that lot inventories were undersupplied and that lot development will be slow given that smaller banks do not have much incentive to make new development loans.
Panelists indicated that access to mortgage finance is a bit more challenging than regional reports. With regard to mortgage finance, business contacts noted that appraisals continue to disrupt loan closings and underwriters continue to require more time and documentation to process loans (see the chart). Lenders explained that all loans must “fit in the box.” Additionally, lenders are driven to minimize their exposure to putback risks and position themselves well to comply with current and future regulatory requirements.
Assessing CRE
Our CRE roundtable members also described the Gulf Coast economy as stable to improving. Tourism continued to improve and drive activity in the commercial sector. Retail in particular has benefited from the strong return of travelers to the Gulf. Panelists noted that expanded air service to the region has attracted travelers from outside the Southeast as well. Retail construction has picked up modestly from earlier in the year as has absorption of space (see the chart. Retail rents have begun to firm as well.
Hotel occupancy and revenue continued to improve as well. Panelists noted that bed taxes have increased by double digits along the coast and that there has been strong year-over-year growth. However, they said hotel construction remained at low levels.
Office and industrial markets in the region were described as steady.
The apartment sector was a strong driver for commercial activity in the region during 2012. Coastal Alabama is experiencing some new construction, as are college towns in the Panhandle, such as Tallahassee. Panelists noted that rental rate increases have recently hit the region.
The outlook among the roundtable participants was guardedly optimistic. The panel indicated that commercial real estate conditions would continue to improve in 2013, up slightly from 2012. Retail and the apartment sectors are expected to drive improvements in the region.
By Jessica Dill, a senior analyst in the Atlanta Fed's Center for Real Estate Analytics
and
Whitney Mancuso, a senior analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department
December 5, 2012 in Florida, Real Estate | Permalink
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10/19/2012
Southeast Housing Update: Investors Continue to Contribute to Improvements in the Region
Southeastern housing contacts continued to indicate sales gains in September. Brokers indicated that sales remained slightly ahead of the year-earlier level while builders reported that sales growth had slowed notably in September. Most builders described new home sales as flat to slightly up in September on a year-over-year basis (see the chart).
In the Atlanta Fed's latest housing poll, we asked Southeast brokers about the distribution of home buyers in their market. They indicated that existing homeowners account for the largest share of market participants in the Southeast, close to half, while first-time home buyers and investors both account for about a quarter of the market. Investors are more active in the Florida markets and account for nearly a third of buyers across the state, according to our poll. However, several brokers reported that there are submarkets where investors account for close to two-thirds of sales.
Digging a little deeper, we heard that Florida investor-buyers were both foreign and domestic, while outside of Florida, investors were mostly domestic (see the chart).
The majority of Florida brokers also indicated that investor sales had improved from earlier in the year, while areas outside of Florida reported that investor sales were flat to slightly up (see the chart).
The outlook for sales to investors next spring remains strong among Florida brokers, but the majority of brokers outside of Florida anticipate sales to investors will be similar to recent levels (see the chart).
Perhaps contributing to the lower levels of sales to investors in some Southeast markets are low home inventories. Both builders and brokers indicated that home inventories continued to decline on a year-over-year basis. Most brokers reported that home inventories were flat to down from August to September while most builders indicated no change.
The majority of Southeast builders and brokers continued to report modest annual home price gains again in September (see the chart).
The outlook among Southeast builders and brokers remained positive. Builders' prospects were a bit more upbeat while brokers anticipated flat to modestly positive annual sales growth over the next several months.
Note: September poll results are based on responses from 58 residential brokers and 28 homebuilders and were collected October 1–10, 2012. The housing poll's diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. Positive values in the index indicate increased activity while negative values indicate decreased activity.
By Whitney Mancuso, a senior analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department
October 19, 2012 in Florida, Housing | Permalink
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10/21/2012 at 07:09 AM
07/05/2012
Sunny in northeast Florida: More signs of a housing rebound
Residential real estate markets continued to recover in northeast Florida, according to a recent poll conducted by the Atlanta Fed. In late June, staff from our Jacksonville Branch along with the Bank's Center for Real Estate Analytics met with nearly 250 real estate professionals at the Florida Realtors conference in St. Augustine, Florida. Conference participants hailed from the Jacksonville, St. Augustine, and Gainesville areas, and most were residential real estate professionals. We asked a series of questions to ascertain the state of the residential real estate markets in northeast Florida. Their responses showed that conditions continued to improve.
For example, a significant majority reported that June home sales exceeded the year-earlier level.
In addition, the sales outlook for the remainder of the year was positive as most expected modest gains on a year-over-year basis.
Importantly, most participants agreed that home prices have bottomed or begun to recover.
And the majority of respondents anticipate modest home price growth during the second half of 2012 compared with a year earlier.
While these responses represent only a segment of the regional housing market, we read the results as further indication that the hard-hit residential real estate markets are making progress toward recovery.
By Jessica Dill
and
Whitney Mancuso, senior economic analysts in the Atlanta Fed's research department
July 5, 2012 in Florida, Housing, Real Estate, Recovery | Permalink
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03/16/2012
Whither Florida?
When the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released January state employment data on March 13, they showed that Florida had lost 38,600 jobs—a decline of 0.5 percent from December levels.
What happened? Has the state's budding employment recovery been derailed? Let's dig into the numbers.
Job losses in the Sunshine State occurred in several sectors, with education and health care posting the largest decline, down 11,000 jobs. Given the long-term strength of this sector (up more than 6.4 percent since the end of 2008), we are not reading too much into a one-month dropoff. Other sectors shedding jobs in January were government (down 8,100 jobs), professional business services (down 6,400 jobs), and construction as well as trade/transportation/utilities (both losing a net 6,200 jobs). Only information services and manufacturing posted monthly net gains in employment: they were up 1,800 and 500 jobs, respectively.
There was no pattern in geographic terms with regard to the state's January job losses. Daytona, Orlando, Pensacola, St. Lucie/Fort Pierce, and Punta Gorda posted the largest monthly declines in percentage terms. Naples—the metro area in Florida that lost more jobs on a percentage basis than any other in Florida during the recession—saw a 1.8 percent increase in January employment.
Let's put the state's January employment report in perspective. Florida posted monthly employment gains in each month during the second half of 2011, averaging more than 14,000 net new jobs per month over that period, and while January's losses wipe out over half of those gains, one month's worth of data should not lead to conclusions that the job rebound there has stalled. It is also important to keep in mind that original estimates of Florida employment in January 2010 and January 2011 were negative but were later revised up, so there may be some seasonal factors that are affecting the state's reading of January employment.
So far in this post, I've been discussing data collected by the BLS's Current Employment Survey, also referred to as the Establishment Survey, which—as the name implies—is a monthly survey of business establishments. This survey measures the number of people on businesses' payrolls. The BLS also produces the Household Survey, which is—again, as the name implies—a survey of the number of workers in individual households. The BLS derives measures of unemployment from this survey, but it also includes estimates of the number of people who are employed. For Florida, January's Household Survey showed gains, indicating a decline in the state's unemployment rate from 9.9 percent in December 2011 to 9.6 percent in January. It also estimated that total employment actually rose by nearly 22,000 and that the number of unemployed fell by just over 28,000.
Finally, the majority of our business contacts in Florida have been relatively upbeat in 2012. Even in southwest Florida—in many ways, the hardest-hit area in the Sixth District during the recession—contacts noted that economic activity there has shown recent improvement. Taken as a whole, we do not see the state's January employment data as the start of a new downward trend. But we will be watching the data and probing our contacts for signs of a slowdown.
By Mike Chriszt, an assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed's research department
March 16, 2012 in Employment, Florida | Permalink
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02/07/2012
Florida real estate looking up
Last week I spent a few days in Florida, accompanying our Jacksonville Regional Executive Chris Oakley on some of his meetings with businesses in central Florida. One visit was with the Florida Realtors group in Orlando.
The group recently expanded its economic research function and has two Ph.D. economists and a research analyst working on several projects designed to track and report on Florida's real estate sector. It has also revamped its website, which now includes data and charts on single-family and condo sales and prices, news reports that focus on Florida real estate trends, and even reports on commercial and international sales. It's a great resource for anyone looking to keep current with the real estate sector in Florida.
The group held its 2012 Florida Real Estate Outlook Conference in December, which looked at emerging trends in the sector. A file containing all the presentations can be found here. At the conference, Dr. John Tuccillo, chief economist for Florida Realtors, said that
"Our state is in a mini-recovery. Sales are trending up, listing inventories are falling, the supply of lender-related properties has stabilized, and we are seeing multiple offers on homes in some local markets."
His comments reflect what the Atlanta Fed's poll of real estate contacts reported throughout 2011. This trend continued in January. The majority of Florida participants was positive on sales and remained optimistic that sales growth would continue. That sentiment does not mean that the state's real estate sector has recovered, but our information and that gathered by Florida Realtors show that a recovery is under way.
By Mike Chriszt, an assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed's research department
February 7, 2012 in Florida, Housing | Permalink
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11/18/2011
The long climb ahead
A colleague of mine here at the Atlanta Fed is an expert rock climber. I'm not talking about scaling some indoor wall, but real rock climbing—Rocky Mountain–type rock climbing. I don't know how she does it. I thought about trying it once several years (and several pounds) ago, but after about three seconds of deep contemplation I chickened out. Probably the smartest decision of my life, seeing how I'm rather clumsy and afraid of heights…
Anyway, maybe it's a stretch to compare my colleague's rock climbing expeditions to what the states of the Sixth District are doing in terms of trying to climb back to where they were with regard to prerecession employment levels. Regardless, it's a useful analogy.
Here's a disturbing fact: Georgia is the only state in the nation that has not seen any recovery in total employment. In other words, only in Georgia is employment still declining—the Peach State has not even begun to climb yet. Here's another troubling detail: Florida has farther to climb to recover the jobs it has lost than any other state in the nation save one. Let me explain.
The first column in the table below shows the percent change in total employment by state from each state's peak employment level before the recession to its trough, or the point at which employment stopped declining. The second column shows the percent change in total employment from the trough to September 2011, the latest month that state-level data are available. As you can see in the chart, Georgia is the only state in the nation that does not have a positive reading in the "trough to present" column, meaning that the current level of employment is at its low point.
The third column simply measures the difference between the two. I call this the "Assuage Gauge"—a positive number means that the current level of total employment has recovered and is above its prerecession level. In other words, the higher the number, the more the employment situation has been alleviated. A state with a negative reading indicates that the employment level is still below its prerecession peak. In looking at the states of the Sixth District, Florida has a very weak reading in its Assuage Gauge. In fact, only Nevada has a poorer reading.
Back to my original analogy: Georgia has not even started its climb, and when Florida looks up at where it needs to go to get back to where it was in terms of total employment, its climb is incredibly steep. Alabama has a long way to go, Mississippi and Tennessee are a bit farther along, and Louisiana is getting close to the summit.
SouthPoint has discussed the Southeast's lagging recovery over the past year, noting in our September 30 post that "the driving force behind the region's economic growth was population gains, which in turn ignited development and, in the case of Florida and Georgia in particular, overbuilding in both residential and commercial space." Let's look a bit more broadly.
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart has spoken about the nation's lagging employment recovery on several occasions, most recently in Washington, D.C., where he discussed the important role new businesses play in job creation. In late September in Jacksonville, Florida, President Lockhart noted that
"In terms of job creation, we appear to be treading water. Basically, the weak pace of growth in output since the end of the recession has translated to only modest net job creation. Modest gains in the private sector have been partially offset by ongoing losses in the public sector. As a result, there has been little progress in bringing down the high rate of unemployment."
The charts below highlight the divergence between public and private sector employment growth. We use the methodology of "employment momentum," which is a tool to gauge the relative strength of direction of employment. For example, if a data point shows a positive percent change in its short-term measurement (the three-month percent change) and a positive percent change in its longer-term measurement (the year-over-year percent change), we can say that momentum is strong. Data points showing this pattern are in the "Expanding" quadrant. Figures with both short- and long-term negative percent changes are seen as reflecting weak momentum and fall in the "Contracting" quadrant. Those deemed as "Slipping" show a positive long-term percent change, but the short-term measurement has turned negative. "Improving" reflects a negative long-term percent change, but a positive short-term movement.
Each point in the charts represents a state, and the states of the Sixth District are labeled. Two things jump out. First, as President Lockhart noted, public sector employment is much weaker than private sector employment. Only six states fall in the "expanding" quadrant for government employment, and only two states have private sector employment that falls in the "lagging" quadrant. The other is that Georgia not only has lagging government sector employment, but it is only one of two states with lagging private sector employment. Any way you cut it, the employment situation in Georgia and Florida is pretty lousy. The Atlanta Fed's macroblog has investigated the national employment picture for some time. To look more closely at employment trends and other data series for the states in the Sixth District, please see our State Data Digests. We update these on a monthly basis, so check back for updates.
By Mike Chriszt, an assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed's research department
November 18, 2011 in Employment, Florida, Georgia | Permalink
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I think ,it is clear that Florida investor-buyers were both foreign and domestic, while outside of Florida, investors were mostly domestic. And builders' prospects a more upbeat over the next several months.