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02/07/2012

Florida real estate looking up

Last week I spent a few days in Florida, accompanying our Jacksonville Regional Executive Chris Oakley on some of his meetings with businesses in central Florida. One visit was with the Florida Realtors group in Orlando.

The group recently expanded its economic research function and has two Ph.D. economists and a research analyst working on several projects designed to track and report on Florida's real estate sector. It has also revamped its website, which now includes data and charts on single-family and condo sales and prices, news reports that focus on Florida real estate trends, and even reports on commercial and international sales. It's a great resource for anyone looking to keep current with the real estate sector in Florida.

The group held its 2012 Florida Real Estate Outlook Conference in December, which looked at emerging trends in the sector. A file containing all the presentations can be found here. At the conference, Dr. John Tuccillo, chief economist for Florida Realtors, said that

"Our state is in a mini-recovery. Sales are trending up, listing inventories are falling, the supply of lender-related properties has stabilized, and we are seeing multiple offers on homes in some local markets."

His comments reflect what the Atlanta Fed's poll of real estate contacts reported throughout 2011. This trend continued in January. The majority of Florida participants was positive on sales and remained optimistic that sales growth would continue. That sentiment does not mean that the state's real estate sector has recovered, but our information and that gathered by Florida Realtors show that a recovery is under way.

Photo of Michael Chriszt By Mike Chriszt, an assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed's research department

February 7, 2012 in Florida, Housing | Permalink

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11/18/2011

The long climb ahead

A colleague of mine here at the Atlanta Fed is an expert rock climber. I'm not talking about scaling some indoor wall, but real rock climbing—Rocky Mountain–type rock climbing. I don't know how she does it. I thought about trying it once several years (and several pounds) ago, but after about three seconds of deep contemplation I chickened out. Probably the smartest decision of my life, seeing how I'm rather clumsy and afraid of heights…

Anyway, maybe it's a stretch to compare my colleague's rock climbing expeditions to what the states of the Sixth District are doing in terms of trying to climb back to where they were with regard to prerecession employment levels. Regardless, it's a useful analogy.

Here's a disturbing fact: Georgia is the only state in the nation that has not seen any recovery in total employment. In other words, only in Georgia is employment still declining—the Peach State has not even begun to climb yet. Here's another troubling detail: Florida has farther to climb to recover the jobs it has lost than any other state in the nation save one. Let me explain.

The first column in the table below shows the percent change in total employment by state from each state's peak employment level before the recession to its trough, or the point at which employment stopped declining. The second column shows the percent change in total employment from the trough to September 2011, the latest month that state-level data are available. As you can see in the chart, Georgia is the only state in the nation that does not have a positive reading in the "trough to present" column, meaning that the current level of employment is at its low point.

The third column simply measures the difference between the two. I call this the "Assuage Gauge"—a positive number means that the current level of total employment has recovered and is above its prerecession level. In other words, the higher the number, the more the employment situation has been alleviated. A state with a negative reading indicates that the employment level is still below its prerecession peak. In looking at the states of the Sixth District, Florida has a very weak reading in its Assuage Gauge. In fact, only Nevada has a poorer reading.


Back to my original analogy: Georgia has not even started its climb, and when Florida looks up at where it needs to go to get back to where it was in terms of total employment, its climb is incredibly steep. Alabama has a long way to go, Mississippi and Tennessee are a bit farther along, and Louisiana is getting close to the summit.

SouthPoint has discussed the Southeast's lagging recovery over the past year, noting in our September 30 post that "the driving force behind the region's economic growth was population gains, which in turn ignited development and, in the case of Florida and Georgia in particular, overbuilding in both residential and commercial space." Let's look a bit more broadly.

Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart has spoken about the nation's lagging employment recovery on several occasions, most recently in Washington, D.C., where he discussed the important role new businesses play in job creation. In late September in Jacksonville, Florida, President Lockhart noted that

"In terms of job creation, we appear to be treading water. Basically, the weak pace of growth in output since the end of the recession has translated to only modest net job creation. Modest gains in the private sector have been partially offset by ongoing losses in the public sector. As a result, there has been little progress in bringing down the high rate of unemployment."

The charts below highlight the divergence between public and private sector employment growth. We use the methodology of "employment momentum," which is a tool to gauge the relative strength of direction of employment. For example, if a data point shows a positive percent change in its short-term measurement (the three-month percent change) and a positive percent change in its longer-term measurement (the year-over-year percent change), we can say that momentum is strong. Data points showing this pattern are in the "Expanding" quadrant. Figures with both short- and long-term negative percent changes are seen as reflecting weak momentum and fall in the "Contracting" quadrant. Those deemed as "Slipping" show a positive long-term percent change, but the short-term measurement has turned negative. "Improving" reflects a negative long-term percent change, but a positive short-term movement.



Each point in the charts represents a state, and the states of the Sixth District are labeled. Two things jump out. First, as President Lockhart noted, public sector employment is much weaker than private sector employment. Only six states fall in the "expanding" quadrant for government employment, and only two states have private sector employment that falls in the "lagging" quadrant. The other is that Georgia not only has lagging government sector employment, but it is only one of two states with lagging private sector employment. Any way you cut it, the employment situation in Georgia and Florida is pretty lousy. The Atlanta Fed's macroblog has investigated the national employment picture for some time. To look more closely at employment trends and other data series for the states in the Sixth District, please see our State Data Digests. We update these on a monthly basis, so check back for updates.

Photo of Michael Chriszt By Mike Chriszt, an assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed's research department

 

November 18, 2011 in Employment, Florida, Georgia | Permalink

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10/26/2011

Regional employment: Looking better, but still not great

State employment data for September were released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics last week, and the report was rather positive for the Sixth District as a whole (see chart 1). Regionally, we added a net 46,800 jobs for the month, the largest increase since February 2011. All states in our region added jobs except Georgia, which saw its fifth straight monthly decline. More on that in a minute.

Chart 1

111026a
(Enlarge)

Florida led the region with a net increase of 23,300. Gains in leisure and hospitality and health care drove September's gains in Florida, but most other sectors also saw net increases. Over the last twelve months, the Sunshine State has added 93,500 jobs—granted, a small dent in the more than 900,000 jobs lost during the downturn, but Florida appears headed in the right direction. Also heading in the right direction is Florida's unemployment rate, which is down to 10.6 percent from its peak of 12 percent in December 2010. The total number of unemployed in Florida is down to its lowest level in two years and September saw a slight increase in the state's labor force, two more positive signs.

Louisiana also saw a solid increase in employment in September. Gains were broad-based, but the increase of 5,000 jobs in government should be interpreted cautiously as the same sector saw a similar decline in July. Stepping back from the monthly data, Louisiana has outperformed the rest of the region in terms of job gains—up 2.4 percent over the past year. In addition, the state's unemployment rate is by far the lowest in the region at 6.9 percent (see chart 2).


At the other end of the spectrum is Georgia. The Peach State lost another 7,100 jobs in September, bringing total losses over the past five months to more than 27,000. Gains in manufacturing, health care and business services were more than offset by declines in construction, leisure and hospitality, and government. In addition, Georgia's unemployment rate ticked up to 10.3 percent. The state is clearly headed in the opposite direction.

We will continue to monitor job growth and unemployment for the region and individual states.

Photo of Michael Chriszt By Mike Chriszt, an assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed's research department

October 26, 2011 in Employment, Florida, Louisiana | Permalink

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04/05/2011

Employment in the Sixth District improves in February

Payroll employment in the Sixth District improved in February, following several weak months. All states in the district added jobs in February, led by Florida and Georgia, the district's two largest labor markets. Across the nation, 35 states increased payroll employment in February.

In the district's largest labor market, Florida's education and health care sector gained 11,400 jobs in February while construction added 4,400 jobs. Industries that also contributed to the monthly gain in Florida were manufacturing, information services, and other services. A recent SouthPoint post gave a more detailed look at employment in southwest Florida. Accounting for the bulk of February's job gains in Georgia were the trade, transportation, and utilities industries, which added 6,900 jobs, and construction, which added 5,000 jobs. Payroll gains in the other Sixth District states over the month were spread among several industries.

Meanwhile, household survey data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the unemployment rates in the district were little changed in February. The unemployment rate decreased in two district states—Florida and Georgia—and increased in three states—Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Florida's unemployment rate continues to be the highest rate in the district and the third highest in the nation. All Sixth District states except Louisiana have unemployment rates above the national unemployment rate of 8.9 percent.

By Sandra Kollen, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department

April 5, 2011 in Employment, Florida, Georgia, Unemployment | Permalink

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It is a good news to all. I hope the employment rate remains steady as we can no longer afford the slump of the hiring industry as it will lead to recession.

Posted by: cement mixer | 10/20/2011 at 10:08 PM

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03/30/2011

Is southwest Florida employment recovering?

Dennis Lockhart, president and chief executive officer of the Atlanta Fed, spoke to Bonita/Estero Market Pulse Conference in Ft. Myers, Florida on March 25. He weighed economic "headwinds" and "tailwinds" that affect his outlook for the U.S. economy and gave his view regarding the outlook for employment growth:

"Employment has been growing gradually and incomes have been rising. Private payrolls have been increasing since February of last year.

"I want to make another point about employment growth, but this is a bit more speculative. In 2009, in pursuit of increased efficiency, businesses cut payrolls and met production needs with a smaller workforce. In contrast, over the past year, the scope for big efficiency or productivity gains seems to have narrowed. Going forward, meeting production goals in response to growing demand may more and more require hiring additional workers."

Discussing employment growth in southwest Florida was a difficult task; this region shed nearly 18 percent of total employment from its peak of 414,200 in September 2006 through the January 2011 trough of 342,600.


In addition, January unemployment rates for Fort Myers (12.7 percent), Naples (11.7 percent), and Punta Gorda (12.6 percent) are well above the national average.

President Lockhart also recognized that the decline in real estate activity has hit this region hard:

"Relative geographic strength can ebb and flow with industry conditions. For example, the Southeast—including Florida—is lagging other regions because before the recession, the Southeast was more dependent on construction activity, which is currently quite depressed."

How hard has the decline in this sector hit southwest Florida? The chart speaks for itself…


The sector is down 61.5 percent since September 2006.

In addition to President Lockhart's points that businesses are likely to continue to hire at a modest pace, Dr. Gary Jackson, director of Florida Gulf Coast University's Regional Economic Research Institute, notes in his latest edition of Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicators that these conditions also apply to Florida:

"The U.S. economy and the Southwest Florida economy in particular continue to work through the systemic problems related to the housing bubble and banking crisis. The recovery to more normal employment levels is expected to take several more years, but we are seeing improvement in the overall economy."

Southwest Florida has a long way to go, but it does appear to be emerging from the downturn.


Photo of Michael ChrisztBy Mike Chriszt, an assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed's research department

March 30, 2011 in Construction, Employment, Florida | Permalink

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02/23/2011

Southeast housing update: Recent Atlanta Fed poll shows home sales up in January

The Federal Reserve of Atlanta's monthly poll of regional residential real estate brokers indicated that home sales continued to improve in January. Southeastern broker reports indicated that sales in January rose slightly ahead of the year-earlier level. The majority of brokers reported that sales were flat to slightly up in January. Some contacts in Alabama and Tennessee reported that winter storms dampened January sales.


Gains among Southeastern brokers were largely driven by Florida brokers—more than half in that state reported year-over-year gains.


Some early reports on January sales activity from around the region confirm gains among Florida markets while reports from Tennessee contacts were mixed.

January 2011 Home Sales, Year-Over-Year Percent Change
Northeast Florida Association of Realtors     7.8
Orlando Regional Realtors Association     7.1
Greater Nashville Association of Realtors     6.6
Knoxville Area Association of Realtors –13.6
Source: FRBA business contact poll

Contacts from across the region continue to report downward pressure on home prices from short-sales, real-estate-owned sales, and pending foreclosures. Two-thirds of brokers and nearly half of builders reported annual home price declines in January. Distressed property sales appear to be a driver of home sales in Florida markets, particularly in the condominium market. The Orlando Regional Realtors Association reported that 75 percent of January home sales were distressed sales. Orlando condominium sales increased 26 percent from a year earlier, with condos priced under $50,000 accounting for more than half of sales. Similarly, the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors reported that lender-mediated or distressed sales accounted for 59 percent of sales in January, a new high.


Southeastern homebuilders reported that they were unable to raise home prices despite rising material costs.


Despite the absence of a housing stimulus that was in place last year, the overall outlook among Southeastern brokers continued to improve in January, while close to half of builders expect flat sales over the next several months.


Note: January poll results are based on responses from 105 residential brokers and 49 homebuilders and were collected February 7–16, 2011.

The housing poll's diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. Positive values in the index indicate increased activity while negative values indicate decreased activity.


By Whitney Mancuso, a senior analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department


February 23, 2011 in Florida, Housing, Tennessee | Permalink

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01/21/2011

Southeast housing update: Recent Atlanta Fed polls show December home sales improved

The Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta's monthly poll of regional residential real estate brokers in December indicated that home sales were slightly below the year-earlier level and in line with figures released by the National Association of Realtors.


December 2010 Existing Home Sales
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Overall, Southeastern responses were mixed. A third of respondents noted increasing sales on a year-over-year basis, 40 percent reported declines, and the remainder indicated no change. The most positive reports came from Florida brokers, which were in line with local market reports.


December 2010 Home Sales, Year-Over-Year Percent Change
 
Northeast Florida Association of Realtors   10.9
Orlando Regional Realtors Association   -1.74
Greater Tampa Association of Realtors   3.9
Greater Nashville Association of Realtors   -6.9
Greater Baton Rouge Association of Realtors   -11.3
New Orleans Metropolitan Association of Realtors   -7.3
 
Source: FRBA business contact poll


In addition to our usual poll questions, we asked brokers what factor had most prevented buyers from purchasing homes during the fourth quarter. Most indicated that the inability to sell their current home was the biggest hindrance, followed by the buyers' inability to secure financing. Chiefly mentioned by those who marked "other" was uncertainty. Also noteworthy, in December Florida brokers no longer reported stalled sales related to the moratorium by several banks surrounding legal problems with foreclosure paperwork. Brokers also noted in a separate question that homeowners were forgoing jobs elsewhere because they were unable to sell their current home.


What factor has most prevented buers from purchasing homes during the fourth quarter?
Enlarge Enlarge


Southeastern homebuilders reported that new home sales remained weak in December on a year-over-year basis. Close to 60 percent reported that sales were down from a year earlier. However, a look at monthly comparisons indicated that sales improved slightly on an unadjusted basis from November to December. A quarter of respondents reported a monthly increase in sales during December compared with just 15 percent in November.


December 2010 New Home Sales
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Reports from Southeastern builders, which indicated further slowing, were similar to the U.S. Census report on December single-family housing starts.


December 2010 New Home Construction
Enlarge Enlarge


The outlook among Southeastern contacts continued to improve in December among both brokers and builders despite noted concerns about job growth and foreclosures. The improvement was generally broad-based, with Florida contacts the most positive.


December 2010 New Home Construction
Enlarge Enlarge


Note: The December poll results are based on responses from 111 residential brokers and 41 homebuilders and were collected January 3–12, 2011.

The housing poll's diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. Positive values in the index indicate increased activity while negative values indicate decreased activity.

By Whitney Mancuso, a senior analyst in the Atlanta Fed’s research department

January 21, 2011 in Construction, Florida, Housing | Permalink

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01/05/2011

A look into 2011

January is the time when economic forecasts for the new year percolate throughout the country. The general consensus is that the U.S. economic recovery will remain on track, and the Atlanta Fed's assessment is in line with this consensus. The latest issue of the Bank's quarterly publication EconSouth reviews 2010 and comments on the outlook for 2011. Here are some highlights from the national outlook:

"While the U.S. economy has been expanding for almost a year and a half, and a number of key fundamentals such as business investment and consumer spending have picked up, the recovery has not been strong enough to meaningfully reduce the unemployment rate…

"Lingering joblessness, along with weak income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit, are acting as headwinds to the economic recovery…

"The U.S. economy is not all doom and gloom, however. Business investment, a particularly bright spot, grew at a 20 percent annual rate during the first three quarters of the year. This theme of improvement in some areas and ongoing weakness in others illustrates the unevenness of the recovery and heightened uncertainty about future economic prospects."

The story is much the same for the region:

"The Southeast economy in 2010 was marked by strength in some areas and continued weakness in others, with more of the same expected for 2011…

"The ailing real estate market has been a dark cloud over much of the Southeast economy. Florida's real estate market was especially hard hit, but it has also bounced back the strongest. Georgia has seen its share of real estate problems, which have hurt its banking sector. The state has the nation's most bank failures since the crisis began…

"Notwithstanding unprecedented cutbacks in production during the recession, regional vehicle manufacturing recovered in 2010. The region's production outlook is encouraging because of favorable consumer demand for products made here and additional plants that will expand production capacity in the coming year."

The issue also includes information on individual Southeast states:

"Alabama has shown some of the s strongest job growth among southeastern states, regaining in the first three quarters of 2010 about 18 percent of the jobs it lost in 2009. These job gains are reflected in one of the more dramatic drops in unemployment the region has seen since the recession. A fortunate implication of stronger job growth—and the greater spending expected to follow—is that Alabama is projecting the smallest state budget shortfall in the region for the current fiscal year. With the greatest share of pending stimulus projects among southern states, Alabama is poised for those projects to complement its current path of recovery.

"After suffering the hardest fall in real estate in the Southeast, Florida has seen the most dramatic recovery, with total residential sales through most of 2010 at 71 percent of their peak level seen in 2005. Florida is also experiencing its share of the relatively strong performance of manufacturing in 2010. Over the next few years, a drinkware manufacturer and a medical product manufacturer plan expansions there. Another boost to the state's economy in 2010 came from foreign travelers taking advantage of the weak dollar to visit the Sunshine State. On a more somber note, Florida is projecting one of the highest state budget shortfalls among southeastern states in the current fiscal year.

"Georgia holds the dubious honor of being home to the most bank failures in the United States since the banking crisis began and also faces the highest projected budget shortfall of the southeastern states for the current fiscal year. In spite of these financial challenges, farmers in the state have benefited from historically high cotton prices in 2010. In addition, biofuels have become big business in Georgia. The ready availability of privately owned forests has even attracted European manufacturing to the state to create jobs in the biofuel sector. The state has also topped others in the region in terms of tourism growth. Employment in that sector is growing at nearly twice the pace of tourism employment in the next fastest-growing state.

"With residential home sales at only 58 percent of their 2006 peak, Louisiana has the slowest-recovering real estate market among states in the region. On the upside, through the first three quarters of 2010, Louisiana regained the greatest percentage of jobs lost during 2009 (39 percent) and continues to enjoy the lowest unemployment rate among southeastern states. In addition, the announcement of a new facility producing electric and hybrid boats and other recreation vehicles in the state will further boost the region's growing green manufacturing sector. In spite of weak economic conditions, New Orleans once again saw record-breaking attendance at its many festivals and celebrations, including Mardi Gras.

"Mississippi has been slow in regaining jobs. Through the first three quarters of 2010, the state has regained only 7 percent of jobs lost in 2009. Only Georgia recovered a smaller share of lost jobs (less than 1 percent). On the other hand, Mississippi manufacturing is jumping on the green machine with the announcement of a start-up firm planning to manufacture energy-saving electrochromic windows and, over the next few years, the arrival of three biofuel plants.

"Tennessee is looking forward to when Volkswagen's automaking plant in Chattanooga begins production in 2011. The addition of the Leaf electric vehicle from Nissan, whose Smyrna manufacturing plant will be under construction through 2012, will add to the state's history of innovative automaking endeavors. The Volunteer State has enjoyed the fastest growth among southeastern states in personal income in 2010, resulting in one of the smallest projected shortfalls in state budgets in the region for the current fiscal year. The state is also one of the three leaders in the United States for clean technology jobs: 2010 saw the addition of hundreds of solar manufacturing jobs in Tennessee, and increased manufacturing of electric car–charging stations could produce further jobs in coming years. On the downside, flooding in 2010 devastated tourism in Nashville during the traditionally busy summer months."


Photo of Michael ChrisztBy Michael Chriszt
Assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed research department

January 5, 2011 in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Outlook, Southeast, Tennessee | Permalink

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06/02/2010

A regional event, for now

In the short term, the Gulf oil spill has largely been a regional economic event. Gulf area aquaculture and tourism businesses have been affected, but for the spill to have national implications, the energy and transportation sectors would have to be interrupted. So far, energy production has not been disrupted and shipping facilities remain open and are operating normally.

Any interruption in oil production, imports or both would have a significant impact on supply. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, Louisiana produces 1.4 million barrels per day of crude oil (2010 average to date), accounting for 27 percent of all U.S. crude oil production. Each day, 6.1 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products (2010 average to date) enter the country through the Gulf Coast, accounting for 48 percent of all U.S. crude and petroleum product imports.

An extension of the moratorium on new deepwater drilling has not affected prices. However, David Kotok of Cumberland Advisors pointed out in Part 6 of his "Oil Slickonomics" commentary that the longer-term implications of the oil spill hold important price influences.

"Our expectation is that the oil business is about to enter a period of intense scrutiny and regulation worldwide. It will confront higher cost structures and much more inspection and regulation. This will eventually be reflected in higher oil prices."

According to data from the Port of New Orleans, the Mississippi River remains open to maritime traffic, and no ship calls have been canceled because of the spill. Port statistics show that about 500 million tons of cargo passes through the Mississippi each year, and more than 6,000 ocean vessels annually move through New Orleans on the Mississippi River. Any disruption to these facilities would have an impact beyond the port as the flow of goods reaches well beyond Louisiana.

Of course, the longer the spill goes unabated, the greater the chances that the oil production and imports could be affected and port activity could be influenced. The opportunity for the oil slick to spread throughout the Gulf also increases daily, as do the chances that it may move out of the Gulf and up the East Coast. In terms of the geography affected by such events, the regional nature of the Gulf oil spill will become more national in proportion.

By Michael Chriszt, assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed’s research department

June 2, 2010 in Alabama, Energy, Florida, Local Economic Analysis and Research Network (LEARN), Louisiana, Mississippi, Oil | Permalink

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05/26/2010

The Gulf oil spill and northwest Florida

Several universities in the region have shared their thoughts and ideas concerning the economic impact of the Gulf oil spill. As members of the Atlanta Fed's Local Economic Analysis and Research Network (LEARN), these experts provide valuable insight into local economic conditions. This week's SouthPoint highlights one such contributor, Dr. Rick Harper, director of the Haas Center for Business Research and Economic Development at the University of West Florida.

In addition to the direct negative economic impacts resulting from the spill on sectors such as tourism and commercial fishing, Dr. Harper notes in a recent report that

"It will also be seen in diminished asset values that reflect expected future lost profitability due to the damage to their income-producing potential. Above and beyond these market transactions, it will be seen in lost well-being of residents, visitors, and others who value our natural assets."

Measuring the direct impact on tourism is complicated by the fact that the Gulf Coast is largely a "drive-to" destination and that many vacationers do not plan their trips far in advance. As a result, Harper contends that

"[F]ears that the oil spill may reach our [northwest Florida] shores this spring or summer is clearly causing visitors to change their summer vacation plans. For potential visitors, alternative vacation destinations or activities instead of a Florida Gulf Coast beach vacation become much more attractive once the risk of encountering the ongoing oil spill is factored in."

Much of the focus on the spill's impact on the tourism sector has focused on 2010. But Dr. Harper points out that not only is the current season in jeopardy, but there are possible implications beyond this year.

"Under the best-case scenario, in which the spill is completely stopped and it never reaches our shores, this negative impact to the Florida visitor industry may be largely limited to the 2010 summer season. If the spill does reach our shores, affected areas are likely to suffer longer-lived damage to one of our most valuable income-generating assets—the Florida brand image of pristine beaches, beautiful marshes, and abundant fish and wildlife."

Harper's conclusion recognizes the fact that the economic impact of the oil spill on Florida cannot yet be calculated with precision.

"However, the effect will be substantial, even if the spill never reaches our shores, because of the important role that perceptions play in planning and decision-making for our customers. The effects will be seen first in our visitor industry, including all of the businesses that rely on visitor spending in the key summer season. Those effects will have collateral damage as they ripple through the economy. Changes in asset values will be more severe if the perceptions of risk and damage are more pronounced and non-market valuations of environmental amenities will also suffer. The fiscal impact to local and state government will be seen in reduced revenue and increased spending. These effects will only become larger should a hurricane or tropical storm exacerbate the potential for damage. The more quickly the oil flow can be completely stopped, and the spill contained, the less the damage will be."

By Michael Chriszt, assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed's research department

May 26, 2010 in Energy, Florida, Local Economic Analysis and Research Network (LEARN), Oil | Permalink

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