05/10/2013
Expansion in Regional Manufacturing Continues
Manufacturing contacts in the Southeast region reported continued expansion for the fourth consecutive month, as reflected in the Southeast Purchasing Managers Index (PMI).
The Southeast PMI, produced by the Econometric Center at Kennesaw State University, provides an analysis of the most current market conditions for the manufacturing sector in Alabama, Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. The index is based on a survey of representatives from companies in those states regarding trends and activity of new orders, production, employment, supplier delivery time, and finished goods. A reading on this index above 50 represents an expansion in the manufacturing sector, and a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.
This positive trend for manufacturing activity came as a pleasant surprise as the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index reported two consecutive drops in the national PMI, suggesting manufacturing growth to have slowed nationally. While Southeast PMI is not a subset of the national index, both measure a mix of similar components by surveying purchasing managers.
The Southeast PMI experienced less than a point increase in April compared with March. Although this increase over the prior period is minimal, the overall index reflected the highest level since May 2012 at 55.5, which is 5.5 points above the of 50-point benchmark. Increases in indices of new orders, production, and employment drove this growth, and each of these components was substantially above its respective measure in the national PMI.
Production experienced the most significant jump of the survey components, with an increase of 5.7 points from March to April, ending at 61.2. Employment jumped 4.1 points during the same period to 57.8. While new orders reflected a much smaller increase of 0.4 points, this minimal increase brings the submeasure to 57.8, well above the expansion benchmark (see the chart).
Of survey participants, 43 percent expect production to be higher in the next three to six months, versus 33 percent for the prior survey period. Although this is not the highest level of optimism reported this year by survey participants, those following the industry welcome these positive sentiments while watching to see if the region will continue to outperform national manufacturing activity.
By Amy Pitts, a senior Regional Economic Information Network analyst in the Atlanta Fed’s Nashville Branch
May 10, 2013 in Alabama, Employment, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Manufacturing, Mississippi, Southeast, Tennessee | Permalink
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04/23/2013
Regional Employment Grew in March, Led by Florida and Georgia
On April 19, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released the March regional and state employment and unemployment report. Data in the report show that Sixth District states added a seasonally adjusted 45,500 payrolls in March, and the aggregated regional unemployment rate dropped 0.1 percentage point, to 7.7 percent, with results generally positive across southeastern states (see the chart). The United States as a whole added 88,000 payrolls in March 2013, which means the Sixth District states accounted for a large portion of the national gain.
Notably, February payroll gains for the region were revised down by 11,800, to a new level of 29,800. Nonetheless, the three-month average employment gain for the region remained a healthy 34,500.
Sixth District highlights
- All states within the Sixth District with the exception of Tennessee added payrolls in March 2013 (see the table). The largest gains were in Florida (32,700, highest in the nation) and Georgia (13,600, third-highest in the nation).
- Leisure and hospitality (12,500) added the most jobs in Florida, followed by trade, transportation, and utilities (6,600) and construction (5,500).
- Payroll increases in Georgia came from professional and business services (6,700), trade, transportation, and utilities (4,200) and construction (3,100).
- Most of the sectors in Tennessee cut jobs over the month, with the leaders being professional and business services (down 3,300) and trade, transportation and utilities (down 2,400).
- Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi experienced only small increases in payrolls.
- The unemployment rate decreased in Florida (down 0.3 percentage point), Georgia (down 0.2 percentage point), and Mississippi (down 0.2 percentage point). It was unchanged in Alabama and increased in Louisiana (up 0.2 percentage point) and Tennessee (up 0.1 percentage point; see the chart).
By Neil Desai, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed’s research department
April 23, 2013 in Alabama, Employment, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Southeast, Tennessee, Unemployment | Permalink
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04/03/2013
Regional Employment Increases
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released state employment and unemployment data on March 29 for the month of February. The news was rather good.
The report showed that Sixth District states added a net 41,600 payrolls in February, which is a stronger showing that January’s upwardly revised increase of 28,200. All states in the region added payrolls in February, with Tennessee (up 11,400) and Louisiana (up 9,100) leading the way.
Meanwhile, the aggregated unemployment rate for the region remained unchanged at 7.8 percent, with individual states’ results a mixed bag (see table below). The unemployment rate decreased in Florida (down 0.2 percentage point) and Georgia (down 0.1 percentage point), the two states that together make up almost 60 percent of the Sixth District’s labor market. The unemployment rate increased in the other states in the region.
By Neil Desai, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed’s research department
April 3, 2013 in Employment, Florida, Georgia, Southeast, Tennessee, Unemployment | Permalink
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03/14/2013
The Sixth District’s Exports to the European Union
The European debt crisis erupted at the end of 2009, after Greece revealed that its government finances were in very bad shape. Stresses in the financial markets, brought on by investor concerns about Greece’s and other European governments’ ability to pay their debts—as well as worries about the banking system—were quickly transmitted to Europe’s economy.
Real gross domestic product in the 27-country European Union (17 countries within that political bloc use the euro as a common currency) began to fall in the fourth quarter of 2011. At the time, a SouthPoint post looked at what the European crisis might mean for the Southeast, given the region’s trade connections with Europe. The conclusion was that Sixth District’s economy was not immune to European problems. Later, in early 2012, a SouthPoint post sifted through the U.S. International Trade Administration’s (ITA) data to determine which District’s states would be more vulnerable to the contracting EU economy.
The recently released ITA state merchandise exports data for 2012 now allow us to quantify how resilient the District’s exporters were to the European crisis last year.
First, let’s put the Southeast data in the national context. In 2012, U.S. merchandise export growth decelerated substantially, to 4 percent from 16 percent in 2011. (Part of the deceleration can be attributed to changes in prices—according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, export prices grew 8 percent in 2011 and were virtually unchanged last year.) U.S. exports to the European Union fell 1 percent last year (to $265 billion)—a marked change from the 12 percent growth in 2011. Chemicals (led by pharmaceuticals), transportation equipment (mostly aerospace-related), computer and electronic products, and industrial machinery are the top four U.S. merchandise exports to Europe. Within those categories, growth in exports of pharmaceuticals held up pretty well last year, sales of transportation equipment were mostly unchanged, while U.S. exports to Europe of basic chemicals, semiconductors, and some types of machinery saw notable declines.
As it turns out, the Sixth District did better than the United States as a whole. Exports to the European Union increased 4 percent last year. All the Sixth District states except Mississippi are among the top 20 states that export to the European Union, and only Florida saw its exports to Europe shrink last year. Louisiana’s exports increased 15 percent and Alabama’s rose 8 percent, while sales to Europe were essentially unchanged last year for Georgia, Tennessee and Mississippi.
Looking into the industry mix—which products Europe imports from each state—can help explain the varying export performance across the District. (Another big factor, of course, is the countries within the EU to which states sell their products.)
Let’s start by looking at Louisiana—not only the state where exports to Europe grew at the fastest rate in the District last year, but also the nation’s fifth-largest exporter to the European Union. Louisiana’s biggest export to Europe, as to the rest of the world, is petroleum and coal products. These products accounted for about two-thirds of last year’s growth in the state’s exports to Europe. Most of the rest of that growth came from a 47 percent jump in exports of agricultural products, largely grains and oilseeds.
The industry mix is very different for Alabama, where exports to Europe also grew in 2012. Most of the growth was driven by a 43 percent increase in sales of transportation equipment. For most other industries in Alabama, sales also changed at double-digit rates—both up and down. There was little inching up or edging down; it was more like soaring or plummeting. Chemicals and paper—the state’s two other big exports to Europe—fell by about 25 percent, exports of fabricated metal products rose nearly 60 percent, and Alabama’s sales of wood products to Europe increased more than 80 percent.
Exports of wood products to Europe did even better in Georgia, growing by nearly 500 percent last year to $81 million. As Tom Cunningham—the Atlanta Fed’s regional executive for Georgia—explains, the European Union (and in particular, Germany) is increasingly relying on renewable energy, and there’s been a huge surge in taking Georgia’s readily available pine, pelletizing it, and shipping it off to be burned in Europe. This appears to be a common theme in the South Georgia pine regions. But pellets are still a niche export. Georgia’s total exports to Europe did not grow last year, mostly because the state’s sales of transportation equipment—Georgia’s largest export to the European Union—fell 10 percent.
Growth in exports to Europe also stalled in Tennessee last year. While many of the state’s industries faced a decline in demand from across the Atlantic, total exports to Europe held up because of 15 percent growth in sales of computer and electronic products. Tennessee’s second-largest export to Europe—medical supplies and equipment—also grew, albeit at a much more modest 2 percent.
Similar to Tennessee, but on a much smaller scale, Mississippi’s exports to Europe were boosted by sales of computer equipment and medical supplies and equipment. The aerospace industry also did very well in terms of sales to Europe. However, because of big declines in exports of chemicals and paper, Mississippi’s exports to Europe were essentially the same as in 2011.
While computer and electronics industry fared well in Tennessee and Mississippi, Florida was one of the worst hit in terms of exports to Europe. That industry is the state’s second-largest exporter to Europe, so a 23 percent decline in those exports accounted for a big part of the 7 percent drop in Florida’s total exports to the European Union.
Overall, the Sixth District’s exporters to Europe showed resilience last year, benefiting from the continent’s demand for our energy and agricultural products, certain types of electronic products and medical supplies, as well as a notable increase in prices for some of those products. Still, as European economy stabilizes in 2013, let’s hope for a better year for our exporters.
By Galina Alexeenko, director of the Regional Economic Information Network for the Atlanta Fed’s Nashville Branch
March 14, 2013 in Alabama, Europe, Exports, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee | Permalink
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05/22/2012
Georgia employment on my mind
On a seasonally adjusted basis, Georgia had the third-largest job gain in the country last month, adding 7,800 payrolls to the state's economy. This growth accounted for over half of the Sixth District's job gain (14,400) in April. What sectors are hiring, and where are losses still occurring? Let's take a look into the details of the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) Regional and State Unemployment Summary for April for a deeper look into last month's numbers for Georgia.
Many of the jobs added in Georgia last month were in sectors especially hard hit by the recession. For example, Georgia saw 1,300 new payrolls in construction in April. The largest sectoral gain for the month was in trade, transportation, and utilities, where 3,400 net new jobs were added. Of those, 2,100 were in retail; 1,100 were in transportation, warehousing, and utilities; and 200 were in wholesale trade.
Continuing its broader trend so far in 2012, Georgia's government sector continued to shed jobs in April, losing 1,200 payrolls. The only gain posted for the state's sector so far this year was a meager addition of 600 jobs in March, which followed losses of 2,200 and 3,300 in January and February, respectively.
MSA-level employment
Here's a look at how Georgia's metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) fared last month in terms of employment:
As you can see above, Atlanta had the greatest level of job creation in the state in April. Athens and Columbus tied for second place, each adding 900 jobs. Among Georgia MSAs, Dalton shed the greatest number of payrolls in April, losing 1,000. Nonseasonally adjusted data for Dalton suggest the majority of the MSA's job loss came from mostly from services and government, not from goods-producing industries.
Of course, this snapshot is just a glance at one month's data. Putting the gains above into perspective would require looking at how far employment levels had fallen in each of the sectors or MSAs. For example, Atlanta's 5,100 job gain for April may make the greater metro area appear to be growing by leaps and bounds, but the Atlanta area had the largest decline in number of payrolls as well. From peak (February 2008) to trough (December 2009), the Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta MSA shed 205,100 jobs, or 8 percent of its employed workforce.
By Mark Carter, a senior economic research analyst in the Atlanta Fed's Research Department
May 22, 2012 in Employment, Georgia | Permalink
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02/28/2012
Georgia outlook update
On February 22, the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University's J. Mack Robinson College of Business held its first quarterly conference focusing on the outlook for the local, state, and national economies.
According to GSU's forecast, the ongoing fiscal and financial challenges in Europe, rising energy prices, cautious U.S. consumers, and weak corporate confidence are the headwinds that Georgia's economy will face in 2012 and 2013. Rajeev Dhawan, director of GSU's Economic Forecasting Center in the Robinson College, reported that gains in growing sectors—such as professional and business services, manufacturing, and healthcare services—have not been great enough to offset losses in lagging sectors such as construction, local government, and banking.
Here are some highlights from the GSU Economic Forecasting Center's report for Georgia and Atlanta:
- Georgia will add 14,300 jobs, including 2,500 premium jobs, in calendar year 2012. Employment levels will improve in 2013, when the state will add 40,600 jobs, of which 7,200 are premium jobs (resulting in a 0.8 percent annual growth rate). In 2014, the recovery will be better but still moderate, with the economy adding 66,700 jobs, 14,100 of which will be premium jobs (a 1.5 percent annual growth rate).
- Georgia's unemployment rate will be 9.7 percent in 2012, only 0.3 basis points lower than 2011 levels. In 2013, unemployment will decline to 9.3 percent. In 2014, it will decline again significantly, to 8.5 percent.
- Atlanta employment will mirror statewide conditions for calendar year 2012, with 10,300 job gains (2,900 premium jobs). Employment will grow in 2013, with the Atlanta economy adding 28,700 jobs (5,200 premium jobs). Atlanta employment will increase again in 2014 by 44,800 jobs (9,600 premium jobs).
- Atlanta housing permits will increase by 12.6 percent in 2012 to 9,594 units as a result of a boost in multifamily housing permits (28.9 percent). Single-family permits will post a mild increase of 5.9 percent this year. Permit activity will increase by 17.1 percent in 2013, with single-family and multifamily housing activity posting increases of 11.7 percent and 27.8 percent, respectively. Permit activity will grow again in 2014, posting an overall increase of 22.4 percent, with multifamily permits growing at 31.6 percent.
In a recent speech, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart noted that he anticipates steady, moderate growth in the absence of potential shocks, a view similar to Dr. Dhawan's outlook for the state.
By Mike Chriszt, an assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed's research department
February 28, 2012 in Georgia, Outlook | Permalink
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01/19/2012
Georgia on my mind (again)
You wouldn't think a breakfast talk about economics would be all that interesting. Not true. Yesterday morning, I participated in a monthly breakfast seminar hosted by a local group aptly called "Eggo-nomics." The discussion was about the current state of Georgia's economy.
I'm not saying that my presentation was all that enthralling, but the questions and comments from the participants certainly were interesting. Of the several questions I received, the most common centered on the theme of why Georgia's economy continues to lag other parts of the country.
As it so happens, these questions mirrored one that was posed to Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart in a recent interview with the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. He was asked, "Certain areas of the country, like the Northeast, are recovering faster than the Southeast. Why?" Here is President Lockhart's response:
"I get the question frequently: 'How is the Southeast doing relative to the rest of the country?' And my answer is, broad generalization, a little worse than the national averages. Not dramatically worse, just a little worse. And I use unemployment as an example. The unemployment rates for the six states we follow here, with the exception of Louisiana, are above the national average.
"Those rates have been coming down, just as the rate nationally has been coming down. But there is a lagging picture for Georgia and for most of the Southeast. You can explain some of the cause by looking at the exposures in the bust which were real estate-oriented, the dramatic slowdown in construction and the number of people put out of work who were in the construction trades.
"And to some extent in banking [many of the problems stemmed from] the dependence on real estate lending in many banks.
"If you want to step back even further, you had a couple of decades of in-migration, particularly Atlanta. You have to build houses to hold the people who migrate here, so real estate construction was a big thing. They come and get jobs; they need office buildings in which to work. So commercial real estate is a big thing and when that turns negative, it creates a problem that is more difficult than in the Northeast service-industry contraction."
SouthPoint has reported on this topic and will continue to dig into reasons behind Georgia's lagging recovery.
Mike Chriszt, an assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed's research department
January 19, 2012 in Georgia, Outlook | Permalink
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11/18/2011
The long climb ahead
A colleague of mine here at the Atlanta Fed is an expert rock climber. I'm not talking about scaling some indoor wall, but real rock climbing—Rocky Mountain–type rock climbing. I don't know how she does it. I thought about trying it once several years (and several pounds) ago, but after about three seconds of deep contemplation I chickened out. Probably the smartest decision of my life, seeing how I'm rather clumsy and afraid of heights…
Anyway, maybe it's a stretch to compare my colleague's rock climbing expeditions to what the states of the Sixth District are doing in terms of trying to climb back to where they were with regard to prerecession employment levels. Regardless, it's a useful analogy.
Here's a disturbing fact: Georgia is the only state in the nation that has not seen any recovery in total employment. In other words, only in Georgia is employment still declining—the Peach State has not even begun to climb yet. Here's another troubling detail: Florida has farther to climb to recover the jobs it has lost than any other state in the nation save one. Let me explain.
The first column in the table below shows the percent change in total employment by state from each state's peak employment level before the recession to its trough, or the point at which employment stopped declining. The second column shows the percent change in total employment from the trough to September 2011, the latest month that state-level data are available. As you can see in the chart, Georgia is the only state in the nation that does not have a positive reading in the "trough to present" column, meaning that the current level of employment is at its low point.
The third column simply measures the difference between the two. I call this the "Assuage Gauge"—a positive number means that the current level of total employment has recovered and is above its prerecession level. In other words, the higher the number, the more the employment situation has been alleviated. A state with a negative reading indicates that the employment level is still below its prerecession peak. In looking at the states of the Sixth District, Florida has a very weak reading in its Assuage Gauge. In fact, only Nevada has a poorer reading.
Back to my original analogy: Georgia has not even started its climb, and when Florida looks up at where it needs to go to get back to where it was in terms of total employment, its climb is incredibly steep. Alabama has a long way to go, Mississippi and Tennessee are a bit farther along, and Louisiana is getting close to the summit.
SouthPoint has discussed the Southeast's lagging recovery over the past year, noting in our September 30 post that "the driving force behind the region's economic growth was population gains, which in turn ignited development and, in the case of Florida and Georgia in particular, overbuilding in both residential and commercial space." Let's look a bit more broadly.
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart has spoken about the nation's lagging employment recovery on several occasions, most recently in Washington, D.C., where he discussed the important role new businesses play in job creation. In late September in Jacksonville, Florida, President Lockhart noted that
"In terms of job creation, we appear to be treading water. Basically, the weak pace of growth in output since the end of the recession has translated to only modest net job creation. Modest gains in the private sector have been partially offset by ongoing losses in the public sector. As a result, there has been little progress in bringing down the high rate of unemployment."
The charts below highlight the divergence between public and private sector employment growth. We use the methodology of "employment momentum," which is a tool to gauge the relative strength of direction of employment. For example, if a data point shows a positive percent change in its short-term measurement (the three-month percent change) and a positive percent change in its longer-term measurement (the year-over-year percent change), we can say that momentum is strong. Data points showing this pattern are in the "Expanding" quadrant. Figures with both short- and long-term negative percent changes are seen as reflecting weak momentum and fall in the "Contracting" quadrant. Those deemed as "Slipping" show a positive long-term percent change, but the short-term measurement has turned negative. "Improving" reflects a negative long-term percent change, but a positive short-term movement.
Each point in the charts represents a state, and the states of the Sixth District are labeled. Two things jump out. First, as President Lockhart noted, public sector employment is much weaker than private sector employment. Only six states fall in the "expanding" quadrant for government employment, and only two states have private sector employment that falls in the "lagging" quadrant. The other is that Georgia not only has lagging government sector employment, but it is only one of two states with lagging private sector employment. Any way you cut it, the employment situation in Georgia and Florida is pretty lousy. The Atlanta Fed's macroblog has investigated the national employment picture for some time. To look more closely at employment trends and other data series for the states in the Sixth District, please see our State Data Digests. We update these on a monthly basis, so check back for updates.
By Mike Chriszt, an assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed's research department
November 18, 2011 in Employment, Florida, Georgia | Permalink
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09/14/2011
A view from the Coastal Empire
We have posted about several of our university contacts in our Local Economic Analysis and Research Network (LEARN) over the years. Most publish regular updates on their state or local economies, which have proven very valuable in our understanding of how the economic recovery is progressing across the region.
One such publication is the Coastal Empire Economic Monitor, written by Dr. Michael Toma and his staff at Armstrong Atlantic State University's Center for Regional Analysis. For those of you who may not know what the Coastal Empire refers to, or where Armstrong Atlantic State University is, I'll give you a few hints:
- Money Magazine named this city #8 on its list of top places to retire.
- Paula Deen cooks there.
- Its port is one of the fastest growing in the country.
- It is often ranked as #1 on lists of the most haunted cities in America.
- It is on a coast.
Give up? The answer is Savannah, Georgia.
I'm not writing to plug the town, although it is one of my favorites in the region. I have visited Savannah and its region, but most of what I know about the area's economy I learn from Mike Toma and his report. Here are a few points from his latest reading on the Coastal Empire economy:
"The region's economy continued its slow recovery for the sixth consecutive quarter. The pace of expansion dipped, as compared to the first quarter, mimicking the nationwide slowdown in economic growth.
"The Coastal Empire leading economic index significantly improved during the second quarter of 2011. This consolidates and extends the modest improvement in the forecasting index during the past nine months. The forecasting index is pointing toward more apparent improvement in economic conditions in early 2012, while the remainder of 2011 should feel modestly better than the year's first half."
Below is the graph that shows the coincident and leading indicators for the Coastal Empire economy:
Dr. Toma concludes his assessment of the Savannah area economy by noting:
"Economic growth in the remainder of 2011 will not be particularly impressive, but should outpace growth in the first half of the year. The current expectation is conditions will show more improvement in early 2012."
This assessment is not unlike what Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart sees for the U.S. economy as a whole. Late last month he spoke about his outlook in Lafayette, Louisiana:
"On a national level, the negative effects of the unusual forces that restrained the economy in the first half of this year have diminished. For example, auto production that was disrupted by shortages of supply parts from Japan has bounced back.
"While the risks have increased, I do not expect a recession. In my view, there is sufficient fundamental strength in the economy for a modest cyclical recovery to proceed while the process of necessary structural adjustments moves along. I believe the unemployment rate will come down very gradually over time."
The message here is that Savannah's challenges are not unlike those facing the rest of the country.
By Mike Chriszt, an assistant vice president in the Atlanta Fed's research
department
September 14, 2011 in Georgia, Outlook | Permalink
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04/05/2011
Employment in the Sixth District improves in February
Payroll employment in the Sixth District improved in February, following several weak months. All states in the district added jobs in February, led by Florida and Georgia, the district's two largest labor markets. Across the nation, 35 states increased payroll employment in February.
In the district's largest labor market, Florida's education and health care sector gained 11,400 jobs in February while construction added 4,400 jobs. Industries that also contributed to the monthly gain in Florida were manufacturing, information services, and other services. A recent SouthPoint post gave a more detailed look at employment in southwest Florida. Accounting for the bulk of February's job gains in Georgia were the trade, transportation, and utilities industries, which added 6,900 jobs, and construction, which added 5,000 jobs. Payroll gains in the other Sixth District states over the month were spread among several industries.
Meanwhile, household survey data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that the unemployment rates in the district were little changed in February. The unemployment rate decreased in two district states—Florida and Georgia—and increased in three states—Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Florida's unemployment rate continues to be the highest rate in the district and the third highest in the nation. All Sixth District states except Louisiana have unemployment rates above the national unemployment rate of 8.9 percent.
By Sandra Kollen, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department
April 5, 2011 in Employment, Florida, Georgia, Unemployment | Permalink
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Posted by:
cement mixer |
10/20/2011 at 10:08 PM
It is a good news to all. I hope the employment rate remains steady as we can no longer afford the slump of the hiring industry as it will lead to recession.