01/20/2010
Regional retail holiday sales wrap-up: Strong start, feeble finish
National results
Nationally, retail sales in December were disappointing. A review shows national retail sales posted a strong gain of 5.4 percent from December of last year, the largest year-over-year growth since November 2007. However, December 2008 posted dismal retail sales numbers, so this gain should not be weighted too heavily. On a month-to-month basis in 2009, the market showed signs of rallying; retail sales looked strong in November, anticipating the beginning of at least adequate holiday sales. But hopes were dashed as the numbers came in reporting a drop of 0.3 percent in national retail sales from November to December. The Bloomberg market consensus predicted an increase of 0.5 percent for the same time frame. This information could suggest that most consumers did their holiday shopping in November rather than December 2009 as November retail sales were comparatively strong on both a monthly and annual basis. Coming out of the 2009 holiday season, the national retail sales trend remains positive for the year and appears to be showing growth.
Regional results
Regional retail sales were slightly more encouraging than the national results. Retailers throughout the district reported that sales either met or surpassed expectations in December. Because expectations for holiday sales were conservative at best, retailers had prepared accordingly by choosing to keep inventories at low levels, and many expressed that this "just in time" level may be the new norm.
In December, about half of our contacts reported sales above year-ago levels. Similar responses were logged when we asked how the entire holiday season stacked up to last year's experience. Information gathered from other retail contacts showed strength in discount stores and outlets while high-end/luxury stores had a mixed performance during the holiday season.
What can we take from this?
Overall the nation experienced disappointing holiday sales. While November numbers looked promising, the trend did not continue into December. Regionally, retailers appear to have experienced somewhat stronger holiday sales trends, especially in December, than the nation. Retail surveys for September, October, and December 2009 reported about half the retailers in the Southeast expressing optimism for the coming months—the highest levels since September 2007, which is an encouraging sign.
By Courtney Nosal, a research analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department
January 20, 2010 in Inventories, Retail, Southeast | Permalink
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12/16/2009
Regional holiday sales update
Update: This is the last SouthPoint entry for 2009. Postings will resume on Jan. 6, 2010.
After a tough year of high unemployment, stagnant wage growth, low consumer confidence, and overall uncertainty about the future, it should come as no surprise that holiday sales thus far have been less than stellar.
Currently, holiday sales are relatively flat compared with last year, but what makes 2009 different from 2008 is retailers were not as optimistic this time around and as a result were better prepared for disappointing sales.
In our monthly districtwide retail survey, 100 percent of respondents were satisfied with their inventory levels in November. They have been allowing inventories to deplete throughout the past months and adequately predicted how much inventory was needed during their holiday sales season.
Regional consumers are out and about in large numbers, but they are hunting for discounts and spending with extreme caution. Gift card sales were very weak this holiday season as people prefer to get more value for their dollar by purchasing discounted merchandise.
An interesting anecdote from a Southeastern business contact was that credit card sales are down significantly from last year, but debit card purchases are up as much as credit cards are down; this shift suggests that people don't want to spend beyond their means.
Online shopping
Retailers were armed with promotions both in store and online. According to Time magazine, CyberMonday.com had the best online discounts from more than 700 retailers featuring new deals every hour, most accompanied by free or discounted shipping.
Reports from comScore say Black Friday web-based purchases reached $595 million, up 11 percent from last year. Cyber Monday web-based purchases reached $887 million, up 5 percent from last year. Between November 1 and December 11 online sales have reached more than $199 million, a 3 percent increase from the same period last year.
Some interesting graphs on comScore's blog show the number of daily average discount offers per store during the days before and after Thanksgiving. The graph compares the past four years, and 2009 has some of the highest levels.
What to expect for the rest of the holiday season
December 19, the Saturday before Christmas, could be another big shopping day. In past years there have been high sales on the Saturday before Christmas. Even with that potential sales bump, the National Retail Federation expects total holiday sales to drop 1 percent in 2009 from year-ago levels versus a 3.4 percent decline in 2008; overall holiday sales are expected to decline but not as much as they declined in the last year.
So, to sum up 2009 holiday sales thus far in a few quick points:
- Holiday retail sales are relatively flat compared with last year's levels.
- Online shopping and Cyber Monday, in particular, were huge this year.
- People were out and about hunting for bargains.
- The bargains were out there to be found.
- Consumers spent cautiously—higher traffic, but lower average spending.
- Retailers did not experience anything too unexpected.
By Courtney Nosal, a research analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department
December 16, 2009 in Inventories, Retail, Southeast | Permalink
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