SouthPoint

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The Atlanta Fed's SouthPoint offers commentary and observations on various aspects of the region's economy.

The blog's authors include staff from the Atlanta Fed’s Regional Economic Information Network and Public Affairs Department.

Postings are weekly.


10/08/2014


Regional Jobs, Unemployment Rate Show Increases

In the latest edition of Southeastern Insights, my colleagues in the Atlanta Fed's Regional Economic Information Network (REIN) conveyed that most regional business contacts' staffing levels increased over the past couple of months. The recent release of state-level labor market data from the payroll survey produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics supports these anecdotal reports.

Payroll survey
Nearly all Sixth District states added new payrolls in August. In total, the region added 51,100 net jobs, following 38,200 new payrolls in July (revised up from 27,100). Florida was among the top job contributors in the nation, adding 22,700 new payrolls in August. The only job losses in the Sixth District occurred in Mississippi, which subtracted 4,600 (see the chart).

Contributions to Change in Net Payrolls by Sixth District State

The bulk of new jobs in the Sixth District came from goods-producing industries such as construction and manufacturing, with 25,200 jobs added on net. Florida alone contributed 10,600 of these jobs, with 6,100 added to the construction sector. Georgia added 7,900 goods-producing jobs, with 5,500 added to the manufacturing sector.

Gains in the professional and business services industry were also fairly widespread, with Sixth District states adding 15,500 payrolls to the sector in August. Only two sectors subtracted payrolls: leisure and hospitality (down 1,300 payrolls) and financial activities (down 200). Though neither sector subtracted payrolls in all states, most of the leisure and hospitality job losses occurred in Florida, which shed 5,800 payrolls, and most financial activities job losses were in Georgia, which lost 1,800 payrolls on net.

However, similar to my post last month about July's regional labor market data, jobs increased on aggregate in Sixth District states in August. However, the unemployment rate increased.

Household survey
The aggregate unemployment rate for the Sixth District ticked up to 6.9 percent in August from 6.7 percent in July (see the chart). In three of the six District states—Georgia, Louisiana, and Tennessee—the unemployment rate continued its upward trend (now for four straight months). Georgia had the highest unemployment rate among the states in August, at 8.1 percent, a notable 0.4 percentage point increase from 7.7 percent in July. Mississippi's unemployment rate, though still one of the highest in the nation, declined for the first time in four months in August to 7.9 percent, from 8.0 percent in July.

Contributions to Change in Net Payrolls by Sixth District State

So why did the report reflect an increase in jobs and a rise in the unemployment rate? Though there is some ambiguity about a rising unemployment rate accompanying decent employment growth, one possible explanation is that the number of people looking for work increased more than the number hired. The labor force participation rate (LFPR) is an indicator that supports this notion. In fact, the data show that the LFPR increased in most Sixth District states during the last couple of months. Perhaps recent improving trends in labor market conditions made people more confident in their ability to find employment, thus encouraging them to look for jobs.

The next release of state-level labor market data will be October 21. We'll have to wait and see if this trend continues.


October 8, 2014 in Economic conditions, Employment, Southeast, Unemployment | Permalink

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09/02/2014


Jobs Increase (But So Does Unemployment)

The most recent state-level labor market data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics were mixed, with one report noting an increase in employment and another indicating a rise in unemployment.

Payroll survey
Last month the Sixth District states added 27,100 net new payrolls, matching the revised June figure and just slightly below the 2014 monthly average of 28,600 net new payrolls. The only state that subtracted payrolls was Florida, which shed 1,600 payrolls (see the chart).

Contributions

Most of the District gains came from the construction sector (up 12,100), which corresponds with the results of the Atlanta Fed's most recent poll of southeastern business contacts engaged in commercial construction (we recently discussed that poll's results). Other major regional payroll contributors were leisure and hospitality (up 6,700) and education and health services (up 6,500). Two sectors—government employment and manufacturing—subtracted payrolls from total District figures. Government (down 11,100) was the only sector where payrolls declined in all states, and most of the decline came from local government. Regional manufacturing also declined by 1,600 payrolls, but Florida represented most of the District's manufacturing loss, shedding 2,900 jobs.

Household survey
On the other hand, last month's unemployment data told a different story in the Sixth District. Although the aggregate unemployment rate ticked up 0.2 percentage points to 6.7 percent in July, three of the six states in the Atlanta Fed's district (out of a total of seven nationally) had fairly notable increases. Georgia's unemployment rate increased to 7.8 percent from 7.4 percent in June, Louisiana's increased to 5.4 percent from 5.0 percent, and Tennessee led the nation with the largest month-over-month increase: one-half of a percentage point, rising to 7.1 percent in July (see the chart). In all three of these states (plus Mississippi), the unemployment rate rose for the third straight month. Mississippi had the highest unemployment rate in the nation in July (at 8.0 percent), and Georgia had the second-highest rate at 7.8 percent. This steadily increasing unemployment across states bears watching as we enter autumn.

Unemployment_rates

We'll see what story (or stories) August data tell us when the next regional employment release comes out on September 19.

Photo of Chris Viets By Rebekah Durham, economic policy analysis specialist in the New Orleans Branch of the Atlanta Fed

September 2, 2014 in Employment, Labor Markets, Recession, Southeast, Unemployment | Permalink

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07/22/2014


A Closer Look at Progress in Selected Southeastern Labor Markets

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics compiles unemployment rates at the county level, which allows a glimpse of how local labor markets are performing. The interactive map of the Southeast below depicts the progress across the region since the second quarter of 2009, which the National Bureau of Economic Research defines as the end of the most recent recession.

Areas in southern Louisiana stand out as having had low unemployment even in 2009, thanks in large part to the strength of the energy sector and continued post-Katrina development. Fast-forward to 2014, and we also see considerable improvement in other areas. But some parts of the Southeast are still struggling with high unemployment.

Although the map shows improvement since the end of the recession, it doesn’t show whether we are back to normal, or even what “normal” looks like. Are local labor markets as strong as they were before the recession? Drilling down a bit more, we separated counties into two categories: those defined as a metropolitan statistical area (MSA) by the U.S. Census Bureau, and those not defined as an MSA. Those counties within an MSA are typically more urban and densely populated, and non-MSA counties tend to be more rural and less populated. In the chart below, we have calculated the unemployment rate for both MSA and non-MSA counties. The size of the bubble represents the size of the labor force, and the solid lines show the national average unemployment rate in each of the two time periods.

In 2007, non-MSA counties in Georgia, Tennessee, and Mississippi had unemployment rates above the 2007 average, whereas all but Mississippi had MSA unemployment rates below the national average. In 2014, unemployment in non-MSA counties in Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee, and Mississippi was above the national average, and all but Georgia had MSA unemployment below the national average. So, above-average unemployment is generally more prevalent in non-MSAs than in MSAs, seemingly a persistent problem. (Florida and Louisiana are the two exceptions in the region, with average or below-average MSA and non-MSA unemployment rates before and after the recession.)

Another way to gauge labor market strength is to measure job growth. Generally speaking, unemployment and job growth move in opposite directions, although declines in labor force participation can also cause the unemployment rate to decline even without strong job growth. In the chart below, to view how MSA and non-MSA counties fared across states, we have plotted year-over-year employment growth in 2007 (prior to the recession) against growth for the year ending with the first quarter of 2014. Once again, the size of the bubble represents the size of the labor force in 2014. We see that across the region, employment growth was weakest among non-MSA counties in both periods, but employment growth was generally stronger among MSA counties in both periods (although only MSA counties in Florida and Louisiana experienced above average employment growth in 2007 and 2014).

The unemployment map demonstrates that labor market conditions have improved in most parts of the Southeast since the end of the recession. However, many smaller rural communities continue to struggle with higher levels of unemployment and weaker employment growth than their big-city neighbors.

Photo of John RobertsonBy John Robertson, a vice president and senior economist, and


Photo of Whitney MancusoWhitney Mancuso, a senior economic analyst, both of the Atlanta Fed's research department


July 22, 2014 in Employment, Jobs, Labor Markets, Recession, Southeast, Unemployment | Permalink

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06/26/2014


Florida, On Holiday

In May, the Sixth District states added just 15,000 net new payrolls. This increase follows three months where the states hit the mark of 40,000 new payrolls per month. However, last month, the District's labor market held two dubious distinctions: first, Florida shed more payrolls than any other state in the nation, and second, Georgia—despite adding 12,900 payrolls in May—had the largest statistically significant increase in its unemployment rate than any other state in the nation (up 0.3 percentage points; see the chart).

Contributions to Change in Net Payrolls, by Sixth District State

As you can see in the chart above, Florida added about 100,000 payrolls for the first four months of 2014 before hitting a snag in May. So what happened last month? Three of the state's sectors that appeared to have turned the corner following the downturn actually were hit hard in May: employment in the construction and accommodation and food services sectors both declined last month, losing 6,100 and 7,700 payrolls, respectively. Hiring in professional and business services—a sector recovering faster than most in the postrecession period—shed 9,500 payrolls. Florida's professional and business services sector added 25,500 payrolls during the first four months of 2014.

As always, a reasonable word of caution when looking at these data: one month does not a trend make. Still, you can't help but scratch your head on this one, especially with accommodation and food services, as the weather warms up after a harsh winter and people begin planning their Florida beach getaways. You can see how employment in the previously mentioned sectors is faring relative to their most recent peaks and troughs in the chart below.

Florida Total Nonfarm Payrolls and Selected Industries

On the other hand, Florida's labor market is still showing some signs of life: the trade and transportation sector added 5,300 payrolls, and retailers added 2,100 payroll jobs.

Other District states fared better in May. As previously mentioned, Georgia added 12,900 payrolls (with 5,400 of those being in professional, scientific, and technical services), and Louisiana added 8,500 payroll jobs over the month. Tennessee added 6,700 payrolls, and Mississippi—where monthly payroll growth has averaged 1,300 during the past 12 months—added 4,100 payrolls.

State unemployment rates
Despite five out of six District states adding payrolls in May, five out of six District states also saw increases in their unemployment rates. The District's aggregate unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point to reach 6.5 percent, while Mississippi's ticked up to reach 7.7 percent (the highest rate in the District). Georgia saw a 0.3 percentage point increase, reaching 7.2 percent. Louisiana's noticeably lower rate of employment increased to 4.9 percent (see the chart).

Unemployment Rates for Sixth District States, and Sixth District Aggregate

To find out how many jobs it would take to lower unemployment rates in all 50 states, check out the Atlanta Fed's Jobs Calculator.

The next national employment release will be out July 3, and the next regional employment release comes out July 18.

By Mark Carter, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department

June 26, 2014 in Employment, Florida, Labor Markets, Southeast, Unemployment | Permalink

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05/22/2014


Are We There Yet?

If you’ve been reading the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly Regional and State Employment and Unemployment press releases lately (and really, who hasn’t?), you may have noticed that Florida has been mentioned as one of the states with the fastest payroll growth. (In April, Florida had the third-largest payroll gain of any state in the nation, adding 34,000 payrolls across the state; this gain trailed only Texas, which added 64,100, and California, which gained 56,100 payrolls.) Indeed, during the last few months, the state’s payroll growth seems to have shifted into the next gear (see the chart).

Florida's Monthly Average Payroll Growth for Selected Time Periods


Florida has added just about 100,000 payrolls from January through April (97,900, to be exact), which seemed like a nice even number for an economic analyst to tear apart. Almost a third of Florida’s new payrolls so far in 2014 have come in the leisure and hospitality sector (see the chart). The professional and business services sector accounts for a little more than another quarter of the year-to-date job gains.

Sector Distribution of Florida's New Payrolls, January-April 2014 (SA, Thousands)


But still, a good bit left to go...
However, although the pace of payroll growth appears to be picking up for the state (and for the entire Sixth District as well; more on that shortly), in terms of the number of jobs there’s still quite a ways to go just to get back to where the state was prior to the recession. Florida’s payrolls peaked in March 2007 at just over 8 million; by December 2009, that figure was down to about 7.1 million. Incorporating April’s 34,000 new payrolls, the state sits at just shy of 7.8 million payrolls (see the chart).

Total Nonagricultural Payrolls: Florida (left) and Sixth District (right)


Between Florida’s last peak in payrolls and the level in April 2014, the state’s payroll gap is 274,000. Coincidentally, with eight months left in this year, if Florida’s payroll growth for the rest of 2014 continues at or slightly better than April’s pace, the state could ring in 2015 with a new level of peak employment.

For the Sixth District as a whole, the region is still down 444,000 payrolls from peak employment in March 2007, when the District had about 20.1 million payrolls. If April’s pace of aggregate District payroll growth (an increase of 62,400) held for the remaining eight months of the year, the Sixth District would also have a new level of peak employment by New Year’s Day.

Other highlights of the state employment report
Sixth District states added 62,400 payrolls during April, with 34,000 of those coming from Florida. Georgia had the second-largest gain within the Sixth District by adding 14,600 payrolls. Louisiana and Mississippi each added just under 5,000 payrolls (4,700 and 4,900, respectively), with Mississippi seeing its second month, with more than 4,000 jobs added each month since the U.S. Census surge in employment in 2010. Tennessee added 2,400 new payrolls, and Alabama saw 1,800 new payrolls.

The Sixth District aggregate unemployment rate ticked down to 6.4 percent in April, a result of declines in Florida, Mississippi, and Tennessee. Rates of unemployment stayed the same in Georgia (7.0 percent) and Louisiana (4.5 percent) and ticked up in Alabama (from 6.7 percent to 6.9 percent; see the chart).

Unemployment Rates for Sixth District States, and Sixth District Aggregate


The next regional and state employment and unemployment report will be released Friday, June 20.

Photo of Mark CarterBy Mark Carter, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed’s research department


May 22, 2014 in Employment, Growth, Jobs, Southeast, Unemployment | Permalink

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04/25/2014


Regional Payroll Growth Rebounds in March

According to last week's regional and state employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Sixth District states added 41,500 payrolls on net in March, and the unemployment rate rose slightly from 6.4 percent to 6.5 percent. This month's release also came with an upward revision to February data that indicated the District added 40,500 jobs that month, about 6,100 payrolls higher than the original February estimate. The table gives a state-by-state breakdown of payroll revisions:

140425_tbl1

The new March data and revised February data appear to be another step in the right direction and perhaps give a somewhat stronger signal that the region's labor markets are gaining some traction after experiencing a few months of slower job growth earlier in the year, a pattern not uncommon over the last few years. Not surprisingly, we've seen a similar pattern in the national data as well (see the chart).


Payroll survey
Once again, Florida was the primary driver of Sixth District payroll growth in March, adding 22,900 payrolls, with Georgia seeing a nice rebound (up 14,600) from February's negative payroll growth (when it was down 5,800). The only state to lose jobs from February to March was Mississippi, which shed 1,400 payrolls. This was the fourth straight month of net payroll losses in that state.

Florida's net payroll gain was the largest one-month addition of any state in the nation, according to the BLS report, and was driven by the leisure and hospitality sector (up 9,500), health care (up 3,300), construction (up 1,900) and manufacturing (up 1,500), and Georgia's net payroll gain—the third-largest of any U.S. state—was driven by retail (up 3,800), the professional and business services sector (up 3,300), and health care (up 3,200).

As for other District states, Tennessee experienced a modest gain in payrolls in March, adding 4,200 jobs. With the largest revision of any Sixth District state, Tennessee's February net payrolls were revised up 3,400 payrolls for a total of 10,300 payrolls. Tennessee's payroll growth over the two-month period of February and March was primarily concentrated in professional and business services (up 6,800 payrolls). Louisiana and Alabama respectively added 900 and 300 jobs in March (see the chart).


Household survey
The aggregate unemployment rate for the Sixth District rose from 6.4 percent to 6.5 percent in March. Half of the six District states experienced an increase in their unemployment rates (Alabama, Florida, and Mississippi), and Louisiana's rate remained unchanged, Georgia's fell from 7.1 percent to 7.0 percent, and Tennessee's fell from 6.9 percent to 6.7 percent (see the table).

140425_tbl2

Want to find out how many jobs it would take to lower the unemployment rate in any of the 50 states? Check out the Atlanta Fed's State Jobs Calculator.

The BLS's next regional and state employment report, which will reflect April data, will be released May 16.

Photo of Teri GaffordBy Teri Gafford, a Regional Economic Information Network director in the Atlanta Fed's Birmingham Branch

 

and

Photo of Mark CarterMark Carter, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department


April 25, 2014 in Alabama, Employment, Florida, Georgia, Jobs, Labor Markets, Louisiana, Mississippi, Southeast, Tennessee, Unemployment | Permalink

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04/16/2014


Beige Book: Warming Economy Accompanies Spring’s Thaw

Eight times a year, each of the 12 Reserve Banks gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its district through reports from Bank and branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. Their findings are reported in the Summary of Economic Conditions, also known as the Beige Book. The report is published on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors' website about two weeks prior to each Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

The first sentences of the national summary and each Bank's report often receive much attention because the lead sentence tends to summarize economic conditions in that region.

Here is a compilation of the first sentence of the national summary and each Reserve Bank’s report:

  • National: Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts suggest economic activity increased in most regions of the country since the previous report. (A previous SouthPoint post also mentioned the weather’s effect on overall economic conditions.)
  • Boston: The First District economy continues to expand moderately, according to business contacts, although growth rates vary across sectors and firms.
  • New York: Economic activity in the Second District rebounded since the last report, as the harsh winter weather abated.
  • Philadelphia: Aggregate business activity in the Third District grew at a moderate pace during this current Beige Book period.
  • Cleveland: On balance, economic activity in the Fourth District declined slightly in the past six weeks.
  • Richmond: The Fifth District economy expanded moderately since our last report.
  • Atlanta: On balance, the Sixth District economy expanded at a modest pace from mid-February through March.
  • Chicago: Growth in economic activity in the Seventh District picked up in March, and contacts generally maintained their optimistic outlook for 2014.
  • St. Louis: Business activity in the Eighth District has declined slightly since our previous report.
  • Minneapolis: The Ninth District economy continued to grow at a moderate pace since the last report.
  • Kansas City: The Tenth District economy grew moderately in March, and most contacts were optimistic about future activity.
  • Dallas: The Eleventh District economy grew at a moderate pace over the last six weeks.
  • San Francisco: Economic activity in the Twelfth District continued to improve moderately during the reporting period of mid-February through early April.

As you can see, almost all districts are experiencing the same level of economic activity.

Here are some notable highlights from the Atlanta Fed's contribution to the Beige Book:

Consumer spending and tourism

  • District merchants reported an uptick in activity from mid-February through March following sluggish sales in January, which were widely attributed to the severe winter weather. Light motor vehicle sales grew modestly during the time period.
  • Hospitality contacts in areas negatively affected by the adverse winter weather saw improvements in activity.

Real estate and construction

  • Brokers reported home sales were mixed. Inventory levels continued to fall on a year-over-year basis, and the majority of contacts reported that home prices remained ahead of the year-earlier level.
  • The majority of builders reported that construction activity and new home sales were ahead of the year-earlier level. The majority of contacts continued to report modest home price appreciation.
  • District brokers noted that demand for commercial real estate continued to improve. Construction activity continued to increase at a modest pace from last year.

Manufacturing

  • Manufacturers reported increased activity across the region from mid-February through March. Significant improvements were cited in production and new orders.

Banking and finance

  • Bankers noted an increase in loan demand.

Employment

  • District payroll growth remained constrained from mid-February through March.

Prices and wages

  • Nonlabor input costs increased very slowly, with a few noted exceptions, including rising costs for developed land, construction materials, and food. Profit margins remained tight across most industries as contacts continued to report very little pricing power.
  • Contacts continued to indicate little wage pressure outside of some high-skilled positions.

The next Beige Book will be published June 4.

Photo of Teri GaffordBy Shalini Patel, an economic policy analysis specialist in the Atlanta Fed's research department


April 16, 2014 in Construction, Economic conditions, Economic Indicators, Employment, Housing, Jobs, Labor Markets, Manufacturing, Prices, Purchasing, Real Estate, Unemployment, Weather | Permalink

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04/02/2014


Regional Payroll Growth Rebounds in February

According to last week's regional and state employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Sixth District states added 34,000 payrolls on net, and the unemployment rate declined to 6.4 percent in February. These data follow a much bleaker January report, which indicated that the District shed payrolls for the first time in about a year and a half, losing 20,700 jobs. The new February data are definitely a step in the right direction and perhaps signal that the region's labor markets are getting back on their feet after a few months of slower job growth, a pattern not uncommon over the last few years. Not surprisingly, we've seen a similar pattern during the last few months in the national data as well (see the chart).


However, despite the more positive aggregate Sixth District payroll figure for February, Florida was the primary driver of payroll growth, while Georgia and Mississippi continued to shed jobs.

Payroll survey
Florida added 33,400 payrolls on its own over the month. In fact, Florida saw the third-largest gain of any state in the nation in February, following only California and Texas. Payroll growth in Florida was driven by the construction sector (up 7,200 new payrolls over the month), retail (up 7,000), education and health sectors (up 5,300), and leisure and hospitality (up 3,900).

As for other District states, Tennessee experienced a modest gain in payrolls in February, adding 6,900 jobs. Tennessee's payroll growth over the month was primarily concentrated in professional and business services (up 5,100). Louisiana and Alabama respectively added 1,900 and 200 jobs, while Mississippi (down 2,200 payrolls) and Georgia (down 5,800) continued to shed payrolls (see the chart).


Household survey
The aggregate unemployment rate for the Sixth District declined from 6.5 percent to 6.4 percent in February. Four out of the six District states experienced declines in their unemployment rates and Florida's rate remained unchanged, despite Florida seeing the second-largest one-month increase in that state's labor force on record (up 58,400). The only District state that saw an increase in its unemployment rate in February was Alabama, where the rate of unemployment increased from 6.1 percent to 6.4 percent during the month. This increase comes as Alabama saw the largest-ever one-month increase in its labor force, excluding the temporary hiring boost from the 2010 census. Of the roughly 12,600 additional labor force participants in Alabama from January to February, about 6,800 were unemployed. Of Florida's 58,400 new labor force participants, only about 4,500 were unemployed (see the table).

140402_tbl

Want to find out how many jobs it would take to lower the unemployment rate in any of the 50 states? Check out the Atlanta Fed's State Jobs Calculator.

The next regional and state employment report from the BLS reflecting March data will be released April 18.

Photo of Mark CarterBy Mark Carter, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed's research department


April 2, 2014 in Data Releases, Employment, Jobs, Labor Markets, Unemployment | Permalink

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03/20/2014


Half Empty or Half Full?

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses two monthly surveys to gauge the health of the labor market, both nationally and at the state level. For the Sixth Federal Reserve District, which survey you focus on in January might say a lot about your own preference for optimism or pessimism. Payrolls contracted in every Sixth District state in the state establishment survey; however,every Sixth District state’s unemployment rate declined in the state current population survey, with the exception of Alabama’s, which remained unchanged at a rate safely below the district and national rates of unemployment.

The bad news first
January was not a banner month for Sixth District payroll growth; in fact, the District kicked off the year with some relatively lousy labor market figures, according to new data out this week from the BLS. Last year, the Sixth District averaged about 33,600 new payroll jobs per month, but during the month of January alone, Sixth District states lost an aggregate 24,400 payrolls. On net, the Sixth District has not had a negative monthly payroll figure since July 2012, when the District lost about 3,900 payrolls, and to see a one-month loss the size of January’s, you’d have to look back to September 2010, when the Sixth District was still brushing itself off in the aftermath of the recession. (For reference, the largest one-month decline for the Sixth District as a whole was in May 2009, when 126,900 payrolls were cut across Sixth District states.)

However, to keep January’s payroll data in perspective, these one-month blips have not been unheard of throughout the recovery, and state and regional data from the BLS tend to be much noisier than the headline national figures that come out on the first Friday of every month. In fact, each year since 2010, we’ve seen incoming regional data grow a bit softer early on in the year, a phenomenon referred to previously by SouthPoint, various other media outlets, and on a few occasions by Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart as a “spring swoon.” (Previously, these “swoons” have come a bit later in the year; maybe it’s seasonal adjustment procedures at the BLS, and maybe it’s because of other reasons.) Though one month of negative payroll data is not in itself a trend by any means, the last four months of data from the BLS do seem to show a pattern (see the table).

Table 1

Where and to what degree?
All six states in the Sixth District shed payrolls in January. Alabama had the largest decline in payrolls among Sixth District states in January, losing 8,200 payrolls during the month. Louisiana had the second-largest decline, dropping 6,900 payrolls. Mississippi payrolls dropped by 4,000, and payrolls in Florida (down 2,600) and Tennessee (down 2,100) fell by similar amounts. Georgia shed the fewest number of payrolls in January, giving up 600 payrolls, on net.

A couple of patterns seemed to emerge across state lines in January. Most notable are very large declines in retail industry payrolls (see the table). Employment in health care and social assistance also appeared to suffer in January.

Table 2

Retail me not
A decline of 10,900 payrolls in one sector, in one state, in one month (as the table above shows Florida experienced) warranted a call to our friends at the BLS. I was told that January is typically a weak month for hires, and the retail sector is particularly sensitive to seasonality. Retailers are usually coming off the much busier holiday season and are beginning to wind down staffing levels. Though the BLS strives to account for this in its seasonal-adjustment procedures, it’s virtually impossible to correct for all of it, especially in such a volatile economic and meteorological environment. (Even Florida had a colder winter than usual. While we were digging ourselves out of the epic—for us—snow storms in Atlanta, a friend in Miami reported temperatures “down into the upper 60s” and needing a light jacket in January.)

To get a greater level of detail on which kinds of retailers in Florida were letting go of the most jobs, we have to use data that are not seasonally adjusted. On a nonseasonally adjusted basis, the scary-looking payroll figure (a decline of 10,900) seen above becomes a jaw-dropping 34,000 decline, though much of this drop is the result of standard holiday employees leaving temporary positions (see the table).

Table 3

But unemployment rates are headed in the right direction…
Despite a decline in payrolls from every state across the District in January, state unemployment rates continued their slow downward crawl in all District states, with the exception of Alabama, which remained unchanged for the month at 6.1 percent (see the chart). It’s not uncommon for the two surveys to appear to be at odds with one another. The payroll survey is of employers—or “establishments”—and the household survey is (more intuitively) a survey of households; that is, of individuals. Both surveys attempt to measure employment. However, since it is necessary to speak to actual people (as opposed to speaking to a “business”) to determine the rate of unemployment for a given area, the unemployment rate is derived from the household survey. But since these are both surveys that are only able to capture responses from a small sample of people, disagreements between the two occur. (Unemployment rates can also decline while payroll growth is weak or negative because of a declining labor force, but that wasn’t the case this month. Four out of six District states actually saw increases in their labor force—Louisiana and Mississippi were the exceptions, and their labor forces only shrank by 2,000 and 300 people, respectively.)

Unemployment Rates for Sixth District States, and Sixth District Aggregate

Of Sixth District states, Louisiana had the lowest unemployment rate in January. There, the unemployment rate fell a half percentage point to reach 4.9 percent. Alabama’s rate of unemployment remained at 6.1 percent over the month, and Florida’s dropped 0.2 percentage point to reach 6.1 percent.

Three states still have unemployment rates higher than the Sixth District aggregate rate of unemployment, which fell to 6.5 percent in January. Tennessee tied with Louisiana in January for the largest drop in its unemployment rate, falling a half of a percentage point to reach 7.2 percent. Georgia’s unemployment rate ticked down slightly to reach 7.3 percent, while Mississippi continued to have the highest unemployment rate in the Sixth District, despite its rate falling 0.3 percentage point to reach 7.5 percent in January.

The next regional and state employment and unemployment report, reflecting data for February, is scheduled to be released next Friday, March 28, at 10:00 a.m. The next national employment report is scheduled the following Friday, April 4, at 8:30 a.m.

If you want to stay abreast of the latest Federal Reserve research and publications surrounding regional and national labor markets, as well as a host of other topics, you can check out the Atlanta Fed’s newly searchable Human Capital Compendium, which puts you at the forefront of developments related to labor markets and workforce development across all 12 Reserve Banks.

Photo of Mark CarterBy Mark Carter, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed’s research department


March 20, 2014 in Employment, Jobs, Labor Markets, Retail, Southeast, Unemployment | Permalink

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12/31/2013


Georgia, Tennessee Lead Regional Payroll Growth in November

In November, 45 states had unemployment rate decreases, and the other five had no change, according to the monthly regional and state employment and unemployment summary from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). All the states in the Atlanta Fed’s district were among those 45 states that saw declines in their unemployment rates, with the unemployment rates in both Georgia and Tennessee falling 0.4 percentage points (to 7.7 percent and 8.1 percent, respectively). The Sixth District aggregate unemployment rate fell 0.3 percentage points to reach 7.0 percent, mirroring the trend and level of the national unemployment rate in November.

Georgia and Tennessee saw the largest growth in payrolls in the Sixth District in November as well, according to the same report. Georgia added 14,500 payrolls in November (see the table), with roughly a third of those new payrolls being in the construction industry (up 4,400 payrolls). Roughly another third of Georgia’s job gains were in transportation and warehousing industries (up 4,100 payrolls), and the other third of Georgia’s payroll growth in November was split between leisure and hospitality (up 2,900 payrolls) and financial activities (up 1,700 payrolls). Employment growth in real estate was notable last month (up 1,200 payrolls). Tennessee added 9,400 payrolls in November, with about 2,500 of those payrolls in the leisure and hospitality sector and another 1,900 in durable goods–manufacturing industries.

Payroll Change Data

Three Sixth District states have unemployment rates higher than the national level of unemployment (Georgia, Tennessee, and Mississippi), and three sit below (Alabama, Florida, and Louisiana; see the chart).

Unemployment Rates for Sixth District States, and Sixth District Aggregate

The BLS will release metropolitan area employment and unemployment data for November, which will provide an even more granular view of regional labor markets, on Tuesday, January 7, 2014, at 10 a.m.

Photo of Mark CarterBy Mark Carter, a senior economic analyst in the Atlanta Fed’s research department


December 31, 2013 in Employment, Georgia, Labor Markets, Southeast, Tennessee, Unemployment | Permalink

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An accurate and labor perspective on the economic growth and stability of the south of the U.S. Excellent document.

Posted by: Jean Pier Dorta | 01/02/2014 at 10:37 PM

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